AI Data Dustups, Bond Market Tremors, and Whatever Muse Is

Meta’s Muse Mascot Is Terrifying.

I might just have to make a weekly news roundup part of the regular rotation here, as once again the noteworthy stories crowding my inbox are so numerous this morning I feel compelled to comment on each of them in turn. If you hate roundups, skip this post – but here are the top stories I find worthy of additional comment today:

  • OpenAI’s Math Problem = AI’s Data, Explainability, and Sourcing Problems. Yesterday OpenAI claimed to have solved a long standing maths problem having to do with Navier-Stokes equations for fluid motion, which for those of us who stopped doing maths in high school, is a Really Big Deal. But as Wired reports, it turns out OpenAI’s work may well have been juiced by prompt data input by two researchers working on the same problem. Adding to the intrigue: One of those researchers also works at Anthropic, and to advance his work, he and his colleague had used OpenAI’s Codex as well as Anthropic’s Claude platform. I’m sure we’ll get the HBO movie in due time, but for now, I think the larger questions are more interesting, starting with this one: Is OpenAI using “private” prompt data to train its internal systems?  The answer, given by OpenAI, is “we can’t be sure.” “While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models⁠,” OpenAI wrote, which sounds an awful lot like a yes to me. Bonus additional questions raised by this dust up: Will there every be a way to know for sure? Probably not, because there’s not an industry defined approach to auditing AI systems at scale – and likely, there never will be. Like all of Big Tech, AI platforms really, really don’t want to be regulated or held to account for how their products are used, including internally.
  • Serious Tremors In Bond Land. If I ever tell you I understand how bond markets work, put me in stocks and toss tomatoes at my head. But I know this: When bonds get the sniffles, the world gets the flu. And right now all signals from the global bond market indicate a terrible head cold. The tipping point: The US has begun to intervene in bond markets in a way that puts the Trump administration at odds with the most powerful force in our economy not named NVIDIA: Wall Street traders. From the FT: “Slowly, and sometimes subtly, but surely, the voices calling out the administration’s inconsistencies and irrationalities are getting louder.” That might sound like pulling punches, but in the pages of the FT, it’s an all out fist fight. I’m watching this one closely.
  • Meta Puts a Genie on a Leash. If you read my rants regularly, you know I am deeply skeptical of using AI agents from companies whose core business model is selling you something other than AI agents. Of course, the first company to introduce personal AI agents at scale is….Meta. Dubbed “Muse,” Meta’s new AI agent can work on your behalf across the web, and initial reviews are generally positive. Meta’s video (screen shot above) introducing Muse shows the agent buying school supplies based on email lists, signing a user up for a 10K run, and rebooking cancelled flights. Meta has given Muse a cuddly mascot, which Google Gemini, when prompted, calls a “whimsical, cream-colored plush sprite.” OK, but I’ll call it what it is: terrifying*. Nearly 15 years ago I warned you all to not build your digital lives inside platforms like Facebook. I’ll repeat the warning, updated for the AI era: Digital agents like Muse may seem like magic genies, ready to do your bidding. But they’re on a leash held by Meta, and they work for Meta’s business model, not for you.

*It also looks like a thumb with handsless arms, but whatever. 

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Five Stories To Watch

Artwork from Anthropic’s announcement

My posts here often stem from my morning ritual of reading the news – which despite the rise of AI agents still revolves around roughly three dozen email newsletters of one kind or another. Sometimes a particular story will spark an urge to “think out loud” about the subject. 500-2500 words later, I’ll hit publish and move on with my day.

But this morning proved a particularly chewy mix of stories, each of which felt noteworthy in their own right. So today I’m giving up on the idea of writing just one post on just one topic. Instead, here’s a rundown of five I think worthy of consideration:

  • The lead story for most of my tech-related newsletters was Anthropic’s somewhat thirsty announcement that, just like OpenAI earlier this week, its models have also broke containment and hacked several unnamed companies (WSJ coverage here). My favorite response to this news comes from Reddit:
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Predictions 2026: The Full List

Nostradamus, so predictable.

It took me two weeks, 6000 words and nine posts, but I can finally round up my predictions for 2026 in one place. Here’s the complete list in one handy, blissfully shortened post. Thanks for reading, and once (and for good), I wish you a happy, healthy New Year.

#10 – The Feed Declines (Predictions 2026, #10)

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On Building A Better Web: The Marlinspike Threads

If you want to follow the debate about crypto’s impact on society, which I believe is one of the most important topics in tech today, you better sharpen your Twitter skills – most of the interesting thinking is happening across Twitter’s decidedly chaotic platform. I’ve been using the service for nearly 15 years, and I still find it difficult to bring to heel. When following a complex topic, I find myself back where I started – in a draft blog post, trying to pull it all together.

That’s where I’ve been this past weekend as I watched the response to a thoughtful post from Signal founder Moxie Marlinspike.  (And yes, the fact that the Twitter conversation was driven by a blog post is not lost on me…)

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A Draft Syllabus For The Rabbit Hole

(image) The most common complaint I hear from friends and colleagues who are interested in the crypto/web3 world is how hard it is to “get smart” on the topic – for a neophyte, there’s just so much noise and precious little signal. Sure, you might dive headfirst into crypto Twitter – but the experience is both jarring and unproductive (ditto that for crypto-related Discord servers).

I’ve been exploring crypto for enough time to have developed a point of view on a handful of people and resources I trust to help me make sense of what is an increasingly fractious and confusing space. Below is a first draft of what I hope will evolve into a more polished “syllabus” of sorts for smart folks interested in getting smarter. This is purposefully not complete – the list could have been much, much longer. Please comment, email, or hit me up on Twitter with additional suggestions, and I’ll incorporate them as I can. And one caveat: I’m reading in this space with an eye toward crypto’s impact on tech, society, and governance. This list is *not* created with an eye toward investing in either currencies or NFTs. There’d be an entirely different set of resources for that task!

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Predictions 2021: How’d I Do? Pretty Damn Well.

As has been my practice for nearly two decades, I penned a post full of prognostications at the end of last year.  As 2021 subsequently rolled by, I stashed away news items that might prove (or disprove) those predictions – knowing that this week, I’d take a look at how I did. How’d things turn out? Let’s roll the tape…

My first prediction: Disinformation becomes the most important story of the year. At the time I wrote those words, Trump’s Big Lie was only two months old, and January 6th was just another day on the calendar.  A year later, that Big Lie has spawned countless others, culminating in one of the most damaging shifts in our nation’s politics since the Civil War. The Republican party is now fully captured by bullshit, and countless numbers of local, state, and national politicians are busy undermining democracy thanks to the Big Lie’s power.  A significant percentage of the US population has become unmoored from truth – and an equally significant group of us have simply thrown our hands up about it. Trust is at an all time low. This Barton Gellman piece in The Atlantic served as a wake up call late in the year – and its conclusions are terrifying: “We face a serious risk that American democracy as we know it will come to an end in 2024,” Gellman quotes an observer stating. “But urgent action is not happening.” I’m not happy about getting this one right, but as far as I’m concerned, this is still the most important story of the year – and the most terrifying.

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Else 3.3.14: Is The Internet A Utility?

elecutilThe week was dominated by Google related stories, but the top dialog had to do with the Internet itself. I’m sensing something of a shift in society’s beliefs about the Internet’s central role in our humanity. Five years ago, no one wanted to talk about Internet access as a basic human right. In 2012, the UN called it exactly that. With access consolidating into what looks like a natural monopoly, might regulation as a utility be far behind?

Real Time (Medium) Another, denser version of previous essays asking whether it isn’t time to call the Internet a basic utility. “..the immaterial organisation of the internet has now become the most dominant force on this side of the planet...” Unfortunately, this piece is too dense. Try this one instead: The Internet Is Fucked (TechCrunch) in which the author enjoins: “Go ahead, say it out loud. The internet is a utility.There, you’ve just skipped past a quarter century of regulatory corruption and lawsuits that still rage to this day and arrived directly at the obvious conclusion.” Of course, that created a rejoinder: More? – “The Internet is an incredibly useful tool in modern society, but it isn’t essential to the basic functioning of society. Utilities are.” My take: The Internet is a basic need now for the info-organism we are all becoming. So I’m leaning toward the utility camp, I’m afraid. There’s a new book on the subject, should you be interested.

The Monuments of Tech  (NYTimes.com) A meditation, with far too photos, on the meaning of the campuses built by Google, Twitter, Apple, Facebook. Have you read The Circle yet? Read The Circle. Then read this.

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Predictions From Last Year: How I Did (2012 Edition)

Every year around this time I do two things: First I look back at my predictions from a year ago and grade myself, then I get around to making a new set of predictions. These are often my most popular posts of the year, proving the old magazine saw that the world loves a list. So who am I to buck the trend? Let’s get cracking on seeing how my crystal ball turned out, shall we?

As you can see from my 2012 predictions roundup, I took something of a new approach to the prognostication game last year. Instead of one lengthy post with all my predictions, I actually broke them into a series of posts, seven in all. I went into detail on why I thought each forecast would prove correct (save the last one, which was a series of “shoot from the hip” predictions.)

I’ll be as brief as I can with this review – this marks the ninth time I’ve done it. Overall, I’ve had a pretty good run of it. I hope 2013 keeps pace.

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Predictions 2012: The Roundup

(image) As promised, here are all my predictions in one place. I’ve written a brief overview of each as well.

Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

Twitter will become a force as a media company, not just a platform for others’ media. To do so, it will improve its #Discover feature and roll out something like Flipboard.

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