To Catch A Falling Knife

There’s a sickening moment in the life of a high-flying startup when you can feel gravity reasserting its inevitable grip. One moment you’re accelerating into the future, the next you’re suspended, at the apex of an unexpected plunge back to earth. For years you’ve kept your rocketship thrusting up and to the right: higher revenues, bigger financing rounds, more new hires, loftier valuations. But then comes a reckoning – a cloudy sales projection, a round of unusually querulous investor calls, a restive board meeting. Something’s changed, and fixing it feels out of your control. Your rocketship has become a falling knife. 

I’ve experienced that dreadful moment at least three times in my career. The first was at Wired, when our high-flying magazine attempted to go public and failed to produce an order book that let us ring the bell. The second was at The Industry Standard, when advertising sales fell off a cliff just as the dot com boom went bust. And the third was at Federated Media, as Facebook consolidated its grip on the burgeoning social web, and our partners began to move their budgets from blogs to Zuckerberg’s magical Newsfeed. 

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Baring It All To Claude

Take all my knowledge, Claude. I trust you!

As a rule, I don’t trust centralized platforms, even if they have strange but reassuring mottos or convoluted non-public benefit ownership structures. But to participate in today’s tech-driven society, sometimes you have to hold your nose and pick a horse. For me, Google and Anthropic represent the lessor of two evils. That’s why I have a Pixel, not an iPhone, and it’s why, despite my deep reservations, I just uploaded a year’s worth of my personal financial transactions and an 89-page overview of my entire financial life into Claude AI.

Am I f*cking crazy?

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Google Crashes, But It Won’t Burn.

Here I was planning a perfectly lazy Friday, but Google had to go and sh*t the bed. Given I wrote a book that came out right after the company went public, I can’t ignore the fact that GOOG just dropped more than 12 percent yesterday – erasing nearly half a TRILLION dollars from its market cap along the way. That’s 20 times more than Google’s market cap on the day it debuted 22 years ago. Oof.

GOOG is not bouncing back this morning – it’s down another 1+ percent, and its peer companies are also taking it on the chin. Google’s steep decline wasn’t an anomaly. Wall Street has finally seen proof what we’ve all been talking about for years: Google’s core business is showing vulnerability in the transition from traditional search to AI-driven answer engines.

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DOC 2026: Science on the Brink

The DOC Magic returns.

It’s taken me a few days to recover from the crescendo that was DOC last week. Planning and executing a magical three-day gathering of 300+ brilliant scientists, investors, entrepreneurs, and policy leaders is both exhausting and exhilarating. It’s a bit like throwing a wedding, or a 72-hour long dinner party. The goal is to give every single guest a massive return on their most precious resource: Time.

Given DOC’s core focus on the science of longevity, time is the appropriate focal point. The room buzzed with extraordinary breakthroughs that are improving and expanding our healthspan — the period we spend engaged in a healthy, happy life. Consistent with DOC’s brand, we eschewed bullshit, focused on the evidence, and had a lot of fun along the way. DOC operates under Chatham House rule, which means I can’t directly quote most of our speakers, but there were plenty of insights to share — as well as some great photographs.

DOC CEO Dr. Neil Parikh
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DOC Is Next Week!

 

When I don’t post for a while, I start to get antsy. There’s so much to talk about in the world I usually cover, but in the past few weeks, I’ve had precious little time to sit with it and think. There’s a good reason for my lack of posting: The third annual DOC is just around the corner, and I’ve been focused on preparing for what will be the most packed agenda we’ve ever produced. Here’s a quick preview:

  • Show me someone who thinks the US healthcare system works just fine, and I’ll show you someone who’s getting rich off its faults. That’s my takeaway from the preparation we’ve done for our opening debate, which asks “Can we fix the healthcare system, or should we start over?” The debate is open to the entire room of 300+ physicians, scientists, entrepreneurs, policy makers, and investors, but it will be led by the founding dean of the US’s newest school of medicine, a senior official at ARPA-H, the Chief Medical Officer of a major wearables company, and a doctor who was instrumental in eliminating smallpox.
  • For me, the highlights of DOC are the scientists who present, and then defend, their ground-breaking work. Next week, we’ll hear from Dr. Eddie Chang on brain computer interfaces, Dr. Laura Esserman on novel breast cancer trials, Dr. Nicole Gaudelli and Dr. Bill Peranteau on simply astonishing advances in gene editing, Dr. Rachel Sarnoff on the microbiome, and Dr. Shadi Kourosh on why and how the skin remembers. And that’s just a sampling. I always leave DOC astounded and hopeful, which to be honest, is pretty unique for an “industry conference.”
  • This year we went deep on breakout sessions, with more than a dozen focused conversations on everything from women’s health to exercise as medicine. I’ll be leading several of them, including on exercise science, cell signaling, and the regulatory impacts of AI on medicine.
  • DOC’s Living Room Lab is back and features more than 15 companies offering direct, experiential access to cutting edge diagnostics and therapies.
  • Deep-dive conversations are another hallmark of DOC’s program, and this year we’ll hear from Dr. Alicia Jackson, who runs ARPA-A, Dr. George D. Yancopoulos, founder and CEO of Regeneron, and Divesh Makan, who founded Iconiq Capital. Each are standout leaders in three fields we love to mix together at DOC: Policy, entrepreneurialism, and investment.
  • As you might expect, AI will be an integral part of the DOC program. We’ll have sessions on how the technology is impacting clinical practice, research science, regulatory frameworks, and diagnostics. And we’ll have a bit of fun with AI as well: We’ll be asking three AI models to judge our opening debate and declare a winner. Of course, the hand vote in the room will trump them all.
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The AI Narrative Has Shifted

Out, damn Dot!

Good Lord, where do we start?

The narrative driving AI these past few weeks has been operatic, and true to form, it’s building toward a frenzied crescendo. But what kind of opera are we living inside? Is it Tragedy? Semiseria? Farce?

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In Defense of Writing (and Reading, and Conversation)

Not often does a New York Times’ OpEd rouse me to respond – but this one certainly did:

I’m a College Professor. Writing Isn’t as Important as We Think.

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Get An Agent Who Works For You

Well, it’s finally happening. The long awaited “agent revolution” is here, in the form of Muse, Meta’s two-week-old entry into the AI platform wars. The early reviews are in, and they’re quite positive (“blown away!” gushed the Times). Muse quickly hit No. 1 in app store downloads. Wall Street cheered, giving Meta’s stock an 11 percent bump.

Watching all this, I’ve never felt more like the wheezy Lorax, scolding from the stump of the last Truffula tree:

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On Suleyman’s Conjecture: Should AI Have Rights?

 

Artwork from Reid Hoffman’s “AI For All Americans”

Of all the think pieces, manifestos, hand wringing, and news analysis I’ve read about AI threats and opportunities, the one piece that feels critical to consider is a plea from Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI. Its subhead lays out its core argument: “AIs do not have rights, feelings, or consciousness. And we must not train them to act as though they do.”

Suleyman opens with a very clear point of view. Let’s call it Suleyman’s Conjecture:

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Google Has Lapped ChatGPT. Now What?

Plenty of places to make money in Google’s AI Mode.

You’ve noticed it, but maybe you’ve not thought too hard about it. Over the past few months, your Google search habits have changed. What was once mostly call and response –  query, results, click, repeat – is now more of a conversation. If you’re anything like me, you’ve started typing longer and sometimes less precise questions into Google, because you know they’ll get picked up in “AI Mode.” Once you’re in that chatbot interface, you’ve probably found Google’s gotten pretty good at answering your questions and helping you accomplish your goals.*

You’re not alone. Google integrated AI Mode into search less than four months ago. Almost overnight, more than a billion people started using the new service. Put another way, with one update to its core search service, Google lapped OpenAI and instantly became the largest consumer AI application in the world. According to it own estimates, Google’s AI Mode queries are now doubling each quarter.

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