For the past many years one prediction has proven reliably accurate: There will be no significant Federal regulation of the technology industry. At times this stalwart prognostication has been tested by major anti-trust actions – but each has proven ultimately toothless. This year, for example, we’ll learn what the DOJ managed to accomplish in its second case against Google – and it’s still possible a judge will rule that the search and AI giant must divest itself of its adtech infrastructure. But I don’t think so. And even if that ruling does come to pass, Google knows it can simply appeal, dragging out any eventual impact until it wins a war of attrition with an increasingly feckless and uninterested DOJ.
Besides, arguing about the past is playing yesterday’s game, and in 2026, the game has reverted to an even older playbook. For the past five or so years, tech giants have had to play defense when it comes to M&A and sweetheart partnerships – Meta was being sued over its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, Google over its consolidation of adtech and its domination of search distribution through deals with Apple and Samsung, among others. But in 2026, the governors are coming off.
Here’s what the co-head of software banking at Goldman has to say about the year ahead, according to The Information: “[Goldman] is gearing up for what it anticipates to be an “extremely active” period that could top 2021, a year where tech M&A and IPO volume both hit record-highs.” Put another way, Big Tech is gearing up to once again go big. Expect some eye-watering acquisitions, as well as novel partnerships around AI products and distribution. While the DOJ fights yesterday’s war, Google in particular will be building a Death Star of AI distribution featuring all the same players from its days of search monopoly: Apple, Samsung, and other Android partners. And the government won’t do a thing about it.
I opened last year’s predictions by noting that “Big Tech has leap-frogged finance in the pantheon of political influence,” and 2026 is the year that influence will start to pay its expected dividends. Yes, there will be individual actions driven by a mercurial and vengeful autocrat. But if tech companies continue to pay tribute, and I certain they will, that Goldman banker nailed it: 2026 is going to be a very, very big year for tech deals.
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This is the fourth in a series of post I’ll be doing on predictions for 2026. The first three are here, here and here. When I get to #1, I’ll post a roundup like I usually do.