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Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

By - January 03, 2012

2012 is going to be a year of contrasts – of consolidation of power for the Internet Big Five, and fragmentation and disruption of that power due to both startups as well as government and consumer action. I’ve spent the past few weeks jotting down thoughts for 2012, and hope to do the Year That Is About To Be justice in the following set of posts.

Yes, I said “set of posts,” because for the first time since the birth of this blog (that’d be nine years ago), I’m going to post my predictions one by one. Why? Well, because I’d like to dig in a bit on each. If I do it all in one post, we’d have a *very* long read, and most of you are just too busy for that. I don’t plan to release these posts slowly, I’m just going to write till I’m done, so ideally I’ll be done in a few days. And when I’ve finished, I’ll post a summary of them all, for those of you who want all these predictions in one easily linkable place.

So let’s start with Prediction #1: Twitter will become a media company, and the only “free radical of scale” in our Internet ecosystem. 

Let me break this into two parts. First, the media company angle. We’ve seen this movie over and over again, with Google and Facebook the most notable “new media companies” of the past decade (and Microsoft the most reluctant). Most engineering-driven Valley companies resist the mantle of “media company,” though Facebook seems to be adapting rapidly to that fact. Its key executives make a point of declaring themselves in the business of selling advertising, and if the new Timeline feature isn’t a play to create the world’s biggest media company at scale, then either A/I’m crazy or B/no one else is paying attention. I doubt the latter is true. The former, well…

Now, Twitter is an engineering-driven company, but its future rests in its ability to harness the attention of its consumers, then resell that attention to marketers. If that sounds crass, I don’t mean it to be. Twitter has a chance to do what Google did – at least initially – provide a platform for advertising that actually adds value to the ecosystem in which it lives. Twitter’s initial platform for ads is pointed generally in that direction – Promoted Tweets only get “resonance” if people engage with them, for example. But it’s about to get more complicated.

Here’s why. When Twitter rolled out its mostly-lauded new design late last year, it added a new section to all of our accounts. Can’t remember what it’s called? You’re probably not alone. Twitter’s new “#Discover” section reputedly addresses what I’ve called the service’s greatest problem and opportunity: How to filter all that Twitter noise into a signal that adds unique value to each individual account.

If Twitter gets #Discover right, it’s created an extraordinary media consumption machine. But so far, #Discover ain’t there yet.

You know what is close to there, when it comes to creating a new kind of media consumption service? Flipboard. And that might make for a few uncomfortable board meetings over at Twitter HP, because Flipboard CEO Mike McCue sits on Twitter’s board. Inevitably, Twitter’s #Discover needs to beat Flipboard at its own game. In the end, Twitter may have to buy McCue’s company (or Mike may have to recuse himself from an awful lot of meetings).

And that’s not the only thing that’s “complicated” about getting #Discover right. As Flipboard has already figured out, once you curate copyrighted material at scale, and then want to sell ads against your curation, things get tricky. This is why Flipboard has spent so much time negotiating rights deals with major publishers.   And this will become a major part of Twitter’s work in 2012; work that, to my point, is the work of a media company.

Once Twitter fixes its #Discover problem, an entirely new front opens up for the company in terms of advertising. I find consuming Twitter on Flipboard eerily similar to reading a good magazine, and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. And good magazines already have a good advertising model called the full-page ad (and the two-page spread). I predict that Twitter’s rise as a media company (along with the success of Flipboard and various at-scale “magazine-like” apps like Wired and The Daily) will augur a new ad unit we can either swipe past, or engage with. New formats like these need a scale player to really drive them into the minds of ad buyers, and Twitter will be that driver (yes, there’s Zite, and Livestand,  Google’s supposedly upcoming Propeller, and and and…but.) This ad format will be a huge hit with marketers, and the subject of many fawning industry press mentions.

My second post will expand on the latter part of my first prediction: Twitter as the only “free radical at scale.” Watch for that later today. And Happy 2012!

Related:

Predictions 2011

2011: How I Did

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

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18 thoughts on “Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

  1. Bruce Wayne says:

    “…its future rests in its ability to harness the attention of its consumers, then resell that attention to marketers.”

    Why cant the “Community” resell their own intentions….Why is twitter in the middle reselling content that they have trapped in their silo …seems that this could be the year that the  prevalent consumer tech business model of extracting monetary “Value” from “Communities” will come to an end.. 

    • Anonymous says:

      That is the role of a good mediator/curator. They add value, and then extract value for doing so. But it need not be the *only* model. As we did with Federated Media, media companies can and should deliver direct revenues to content creators as well.

  2. Chris McCoy says:

    Looking forward to more of your predictions, John. Love ‘em!

    Twitter as a technomedia company is inevitable. I’m not a big fan of technomedia though. Have written some on this. In the end, I think content creator’s win (after all, somebody has to pay them).- http://www.quora.com/Chris-McCoy/Posts/How-content-wins

  3. [...] Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media, John Battelle’s Searchblog [...]

  4. [...] Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media [...]

  5. [...] Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media [...]

  6. [...] Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media [...]

  7. Google Propeller (renamed to Google Currents) has actually been out for sometime now.

  8. [...] So what’s next? Potentially, social ads like Facebook’s, which cut through the noise with references to what people’s friends like or have bought. But among many uncertainties about social ads are how well they will scale up to audiences of millions, how well they will work for image advertising, or whether they’re useful to any publisher except a giant social network–meaning, for now, only Facebook. Or maybe Twitter’s ad experiments will blossom. [...]

  9. [...] Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media – Twitter will become a media company, and the only “free radical of scale” in our Internet ecosystem.  I think it is fair to say this one came true in spades. Twitter is a major force in media now, a statement that could not be said just one short year ago. As I wrote in my essay: “Twitter is an engineering-driven company, but its future rests in its ability to harness the attention of its consumers, then resell that attention to marketers.” Pretty much every major move Twitter made this past year was about securing its media-based business model. Twitter consolidated its control over its distribution, introduced “Twitter Cards” to keep readers engaged on its own platform, refined it’s increasingly addictive “Discover” media feature, introduced a broader and deeper set of engagement-based advertising products, and much more. Twitter is now seen as an essential partner for every major media company in the world – the hash tag is now a television and movie marketing essential. (Oh, and I predicted that there’d be conflict with Flipboard’s CEO being on Twitter’s board. He’s not anymore.) The second part of my prediction: That Twitter is the only “free radical of scale” in the Internet ecosystem is also true. No other company boasts Twitter’s scale, importance, and independence. I think it’s arguable that Yahoo might come back from the near dead to claim a similar status, but I doubt it. More on this as I review my second prediction below. Meanwhile, I put this prediction in the “got it right” side of the ledger. [...]