Tag: predictions

Well, 2024 is in the books, and it’s time to grade my own homework. One year ago I posted my 2024 predictions, fresh off a so-so showing in 2023. So how’d I do this time? Pretty well, actually. To the results:

1. The AI party takes a pause. One year ago I was skeptical that AI would continue its tear – it seemed to me we had a lot to process, both societally as well as in the tech itself. And while AI remained the top tech story, many of those stories were about how the technology seemed to be stalling. Halfway through the year, the Washington Post noted that “Wall St. Is Starting to See a Bubble.” By year’s end, the Journal declared “The Next Great Leap in AI Is Behind Schedule and Crazy Expensive.” Along the way, the headlines kept coming: “The Data That Powers A.I. Is Disappearing Fast,” “The AI Revolution Is Losing Steam,” the former top researcher at OpenAI seeing the “end of peak data,” the CEO of Google telling us that “the low hanging fruit is gone,” and finally, the Times, just this past week, asking “Is the Tech Industry Already on the Cusp of an A.I. Slowdown?” Prediction #1: Check.
2. But Progress Continues… For my second prediction, I gave myself something of an out – yes, AI will take a pause, but there will still be a lot of interesting developments. And progress did indeed continue – tens of thousands of startups are toiling away at possible breakthrough applications, Google released Gemini, NotebookLM, and integrated Gemini into its core search and office products, OpenAI released SearchGPT and its reasoning models, AI-driven video became a reality at scale, Apple launched “Intelligence,” and everyone was madly trying to make “the agentic web” a thing (more on that in my 2025 predictions). So, check, lots of progress despite the pause.
3. Big Tech’s Mid-life Crisis. “Every year it gets more difficult for the Amazons, Google, and Apples of the world to continue their ever-upward march” I wrote in defense of my third prediction, which inferred that the Apples, Googles, and Amazons of the world would, by year’s end, be seen in a worse light than at the start of 2024 (though I also said their stock prices would not suffer, and I certainly got that right!). While it’s not easy to prove, I think the narrative has largely held up. My reasoning here was that the tech industry was going to have to figure out what its role was in the world, now that it holds nearly limitless power. And I think that’s exactly what we got: The phrase “mid life crisis” certainly comes to mind for a particularly annoying group of big tech leaders – Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, Jeff Bezos and their peers, all of whom became players in a particularly florid drama involving acting out about their own power, kissing rings to protect their wealth, defending their turf from endless government actions, creating self-glorifying ads that miss the point entirely, and throwing tin-eared parties for themselves all along the way. I’ll give myself a win here, though I’ll also admit it was a hard one to pin down.
4. Fediverse Rising. For my fourth prediction I held that the protocol-driven “fediverse” would have a good year. This played out, both through the rise of Threads throughout the year (now at more than 100mm DAUs, and 275mm MAUs), and the late surge of interest in Bluesky, which is based on a similar federated approach. It didn’t hurt that sentiment around X plummeted, and many social media players began moving off TikTok for fear of a government ban currently slated for late January. Overall, I’d grade this one a win.
5. Apple Gets Bitten. I predicted Apple would spend the year dealing with its inherent growth issues, adding that the company would come to be understood as a major player in the advertising business, which would hurt its self-proclaimed status as a privacy champion. That’s exactly what happened in the Spring, when the size of Google’s payments to Apple came to light as part of the DOJ’s antitrust suit against the search giant. Apple also had a miserable year when it came to new product releases: The Vision Pro failed to impress (and sold far fewer units than predicted), Apple released an absolutely tone-deaf ad for its new iPad, and its “Intelligence” product launched to less than stellar reviews. So yes, Apple did get bitten in 2024, but as I also predicted, the company’s stock was still up and to the right. For now, anyway.
6. Bright Spots Emerge in Media. I know, it was mostly doom and gloom in media again this year. But not if you’re tracking new approaches to the media game – and there were plenty of them, if you looked hard enough. First off, of course, is the rise of “creators” and “influencers” – a recent Pew study found that one in five Americans now get their news from influencers, and that figure rises to 37 percent for those under 30. Add in AI-driven aggregation apps (Particle, Bulletin et al), the continued rise of newsletter platforms like Substack and beehiiv, the rush to Bluesky – one might make the case that media was starting to look interesting again in 2024. And hey, DOC launched too! But to be honest, I didn’t find enough “bright spots” to confidently claim this prediction as a win. I’ll take a push here.
7. Cars Will Keep Their Drivers. OK, one could argue that since Waymo rolled out in San Francisco and several other cities this past year, I was utterly wrong when I wrote “even if driverless tech was ready for prime time, municipalities – whose approvals matter more than state and federal governments – are decidedly not.” Then again, a limited roll out in a handful of cities does not make 2024 “the year of the driverless car.” But, I know when I’m wrong, and I’ll grade this prediction a fail.
8. Enterprise Data Moves Beyond Marketing. Nope – at least not in a way that anyone can explain. While it’s true that the entire corporate world is in a tizzy about data-driven AI models that will change….everything, I’m not seeing much proof out there, at least not yet. I wrote that “this coming year we’ll see at least a few touchstone examples of data-driven applications from enterprise players that change the way B2B leaders consider justifying their investments in IT. And for once, it won’t be to make a marketing campaign more efficient.” I sense this is happening, but I just don’t have the examples to show it. I’d love to hear about examples that prove me right, but…I don’t have any to grade myself as anything other than a push.
9. The New York Times Loses Its Suit Against AI. A clear miss, because the suit is ongoing, though it certainly looks like the Times is on the wrong side of this from an industry perspective (more and more media companies are closing their eyes, hoping for the best, and taking the money).

Well, that’s the scorecard: Of nine predictions, five wins, two pushes, and two misses. Not bad, but also not my best year either. Next week I’ll publish my 2025 predictions – look for hot takes on AI agents, whether TikTok will actually be banned, and Big Tech’s banner year. Until then, thanks as always for reading, and have a wonderful holiday season.