Get An Agent Who Works For You

Well, it’s finally happening. The long awaited “agent revolution” is here, in the form of Muse, Meta’s two-week-old entry into the AI platform wars. The early reviews are in, and they’re quite positive (“blown away!” gushed the Times). Muse quickly hit No. 1 in app store downloads. Wall Street cheered, giving Meta’s stock an 11 percent bump.

Watching all this, I’ve never felt more like the wheezy Lorax, scolding from the stump of the last Truffula tree:

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Google Has Lapped ChatGPT. Now What?

Plenty of places to make money in Google’s AI Mode.

You’ve noticed it, but maybe you’ve not thought too hard about it. Over the past few months, your Google search habits have changed. What was once mostly call and response –  query, results, click, repeat – is now more of a conversation. If you’re anything like me, you’ve started typing longer and sometimes less precise questions into Google, because you know they’ll get picked up in “AI Mode.” Once you’re in that chatbot interface, you’ve probably found Google’s gotten pretty good at answering your questions and helping you accomplish your goals.*

You’re not alone. Google integrated AI Mode into search less than four months ago. Almost overnight, more than a billion people started using the new service. Put another way, with one update to its core search service, Google lapped OpenAI and instantly became the largest consumer AI application in the world. According to it own estimates, Google’s AI Mode queries are now doubling each quarter.

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AI Data Dustups, Bond Market Tremors, and Whatever Muse Is

Meta’s Muse Mascot Is Terrifying.

I might just have to make a weekly news roundup part of the regular rotation here, as once again the noteworthy stories crowding my inbox are so numerous this morning I feel compelled to comment on each of them in turn. If you hate roundups, skip this post – but here are the top stories I find worthy of additional comment today:

  • OpenAI’s Math Problem = AI’s Data, Explainability, and Sourcing Problems. Yesterday OpenAI claimed to have solved a long standing maths problem having to do with Navier-Stokes equations for fluid motion, which for those of us who stopped doing maths in high school, is a Really Big Deal. But as Wired reports, it turns out OpenAI’s work may well have been juiced by prompt data input by two researchers working on the same problem. Adding to the intrigue: One of those researchers also works at Anthropic, and to advance his work, he and his colleague had used OpenAI’s Codex as well as Anthropic’s Claude platform. I’m sure we’ll get the HBO movie in due time, but for now, I think the larger questions are more interesting, starting with this one: Is OpenAI using “private” prompt data to train its internal systems?  The answer, given by OpenAI, is “we can’t be sure.” “While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models⁠,” OpenAI wrote, which sounds an awful lot like a yes to me. Bonus additional questions raised by this dust up: Will there every be a way to know for sure? Probably not, because there’s not an industry defined approach to auditing AI systems at scale – and likely, there never will be. Like all of Big Tech, AI platforms really, really don’t want to be regulated or held to account for how their products are used, including internally.
  • Serious Tremors In Bond Land. If I ever tell you I understand how bond markets work, put me in stocks and toss tomatoes at my head. But I know this: When bonds get the sniffles, the world gets the flu. And right now all signals from the global bond market indicate a terrible head cold. The tipping point: The US has begun to intervene in bond markets in a way that puts the Trump administration at odds with the most powerful force in our economy not named NVIDIA: Wall Street traders. From the FT: “Slowly, and sometimes subtly, but surely, the voices calling out the administration’s inconsistencies and irrationalities are getting louder.” That might sound like pulling punches, but in the pages of the FT, it’s an all out fist fight. I’m watching this one closely.
  • Meta Puts a Genie on a Leash. If you read my rants regularly, you know I am deeply skeptical of using AI agents from companies whose core business model is selling you something other than AI agents. Of course, the first company to introduce personal AI agents at scale is….Meta. Dubbed “Muse,” Meta’s new AI agent can work on your behalf across the web, and initial reviews are generally positive. Meta’s video (screen shot above) introducing Muse shows the agent buying school supplies based on email lists, signing a user up for a 10K run, and rebooking cancelled flights. Meta has given Muse a cuddly mascot, which Google Gemini, when prompted, calls a “whimsical, cream-colored plush sprite.” OK, but I’ll call it what it is: terrifying*. Nearly 15 years ago I warned you all to not build your digital lives inside platforms like Facebook. I’ll repeat the warning, updated for the AI era: Digital agents like Muse may seem like magic genies, ready to do your bidding. But they’re on a leash held by Meta, and they work for Meta’s business model, not for you.

*It also looks like a thumb with handsless arms, but whatever. 

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Comparing OpenAI’s Ad Platform to Early Google and Facebook Growth

Watching OpenAI promote its ads business puts me in something of a nostalgic mood. When I saw OpenAI’s thirsty announcement this week proclaiming a billion-dollar revenue run rate in its advertising business, I had myself something of a chuckle. We’ve seen this movie before – I wrote an early script for it in The Search, which among other things chronicled Google’s rise to a spectacular IPO in 2004. But is it really the same movie? The answer is no – but if you squint, and take a few reasonable liberties with history, it’s clear Altman & Co. are hoping for a sequel.

The Race to A Billion Trillion

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The Rhymes of Tech History

Big Brother, indeed.

It seems ridiculous now, but when I was a cub reporter covering the tech industry, our publication had an entire beat focused on word processing – and it was one of the most sought after assignments in the newsroom. We had another reporter who focused on spreadsheets. Because I was the new kid, I covered databases – databases! – and other reporters covered desktop publishing software and utilities. At just one publication, that’s a half a dozen full-time reporters tracking and analyzing applications that have mostly faded into the background noise of today’s tech industry. At the time (late 1980s), there were at least a dozen outlets doing the same thing.

Think about that – nearly one hundred journalists covering workplace software!

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Who Stole My Alpha?

Have you seen Alex Karp’s rant on CNBC? I fielded this question about a dozen times over the past week. If you’ve not yet watched, it’s well worth your time. In a conspiratorial diatribe against the evils of monopoly-crazed frontier labs, the founder of defense-tech giant Palantir asserts that OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are ruining our economy by “stealing our alpha” (more on that in a second). And because he’s a founding member of the Valley’s newly emboldened MAGA elite, Karp manages to toss in a few unhinged political dog whistles, implicating both UC Berkeley and “wealth taxes” as complicit in the downfall of civilization as we know it.

Despite obviously talking his own book – Palantir sells an application layer that sits above frontier models and ensures clients will not have their “alpha” stolen – Karp makes a point that has resonated deeply across not only tech, but the entire economy. “He’s not wrong…” is how several of the emails I’ve received have begun. “He’s got a point,” they continue, “even if he is kind of toxic.”

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Data Is Non Rivalrous. Why Have We Enclosed It?

One of the many reasons I’m a fan of reading history is its ability to offer frameworks for understanding the present. I recently finished Sven Beckert’s Capitalism: A Global History, a 1,300-page monument to scholarship that The New York Times praised as “generational” in its importance. I tend to agree. Its pages contain foundational truths which enliven today’s debate around the role of technology in society.

Beckert argues that over the past millennium, capitalism’s amoral ideology of “accumulation above all else” has become so deeply embedded in the global political economy that we no longer question its core assumptions.

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OpenAI Plans on Marketing Its Way To Glory. Bonne Chance!

The cookies have it.

Early this past Saturday morning I got an email from OpenAI titled “Update to our privacy policy and more controls.” I don’t recall ever getting email from the company – I signed up for ChatGPT when it launched, but haven’t used the service much since switching to Claude several years ago. But the email reminded me of a story I read from The Information last week, and I think it’s fair to say the two are related: OpenAI Sees $8 ChatGPT Driving Consumer Subscribers to 122 Million This Year.

I’ve written several posts about OpenAI’s jaw-dropping advertising ambitions, which I believe history will judge as the most audacious and potentially damaging expansion of the Internet’s data-driven advertising model since the invention of AdWords, Google’s original cash cow. OpenAI plans on scaling its advertising revenue from zero in 2025 to more than $100 billion by 2030. As I pointed out earlier, it took Google nearly two decades to reach that milestone.

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We Dream of Genies, But Will Big Tech Let Us Use Them?

Last night I dreamt I was merging onto a rushing freeway. My on-ramp was far too short, a concrete embankment hemmed me in to the right. Faceless, speeding vehicles filled the lanes; integrating with them would require icy determination and perfectly executed timing. Missing the merge would bring certain death. The dream began after the point of no return – I was already accelerating into the flow, braking was not an option.

Do, or die.

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How Long Will Your Claw Be Open?

Try me, then you’ll buy me.

It’s “phase two” of the AI boom, and the claws are out.

Back at the tail end of 2024, I wrote these words: “2025 will not be the year AI agents take off.  As the bloom came off the Generative AI rose in 2024, everyone started talking about AI agents as the Next Big Thing. Google, Apple, OpenAI, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon – all of them (and about a million startups) are trying to build user agents for both enterprise and consumer use cases. I’m a huge fan of the concept, but for now, it remains just that. Reasoning agents that book your travel, negotiate your insurance bills, or manage your calendar simply will not work if they are beholden to the same business models currently driving Big Tech.”

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