I was going to write a long piece on the implications of the ongoing cage match between Anthropic and the US government, but as I dug into the research, I realized that hot takes on subjects this complicated rarely add much value to the debate. I’m going to let things cool a bit and take another run at it down the road.
But something important kept tugging at me as I was reading up on what I believe is the most significant regulatory action ever taken in the tech industry (if you believe listing a major US company as a “supply chain risk” is NOT government regulation, you’re fooling yourself).
What kept coming up as I read all those hot takes was this: Anthropic finds itself at a unique and utterly novel moment in time, one that just might let it become a major consumer platform. To wit:
- Anthropic’s Claude is now the #1 downloaded consumer app for iOS, and recently broke into the top 5 on Google Play. Claude had languished below the top 100 at the start of 2025.
- Visits to the Claude website increased elevenfold in 2025 – from 16 million in January 2025 to 176.12 million in December 2025.
- While Claude’s increase in traffic in 2025 can largely be attributed to its original focus on B2B and enterprise usage, where it’s considered a leader, Anthropic’s management had the consumer in mind well before the current controversy. In January – before Anthropic’s cheeky Super Bowl ads, and well before the current Pentagon imbroglio, SimilarWeb estimated Claude.ai visits increased to 202.9 million, a 15 percent increase in one month. The February number, which will be published by mid-March, will likely show a much larger jump due both to the Super Bowl and the Pentagon news.
- The Super Bowl (on February 8) pushed Claude from #41 to #7 on the iOS App Store and drove a 32 percent US download spike and 15 percent global download spike. That momentum carried throughout February, with the app staying in the top 20 most of the month until the Pentagon conflict pushed it to #1 over the past few days.
- Yesterday, Anthropic announced two key upgrades to its Claude app, both of which are focused on the consumer: First, it added memory features to the free version of its app, matching OpenAI, and second, it added the ability to “absorb” the memory of competing apps, making switching from OpenAI or Gemini far less painful for consumers.
Anthropic has made its reputation – and its historic sprint to $14 billion in annualized revenue – on the back of a focused strategy that caters to enterprise clientele. It’s also built a brand based on being the more cautious and thoughtful of all the major model makers. It’s always had a good consumer app – I’ve been using it exclusively for more than a year – but until recently, the consumer market felt like an afterthought. In late 2025, OpenAI claimed 800+ million users, and Google’s Gemini had grown to 750 million. Claude’s users for the same period? A paltry 30 million.
But while Claude is tiny by comparison, it’s become a champion at converting free users to paid subscribers. Yes, most of those paid subscriptions were for business and enterprise use cases, but Anthropic is at a key inflection point: It’s got the world’s attention, it’s got a strong consumer value proposition – “we’re the good guys in tech, if you use us, your data won’t be used by the government” – and it’s already plowed the road to becoming a consumer brand with its Super Bowl ads and recently introduced competitive product features. Kind of reminds me of another company in the early days of tech, one with tiny marketshare and a unique take on the world. (Yes, I mean Apple back in the 1980s).
Most observers of the AI industry estimate that Anthropic earns just 15 percent of its revenue from direct consumer subscribers. Given the past week’s news, I expect that number to change dramatically – if the Pentagon’s “supply chain risk” threat holds, enterprise revenue will slow dramatically, just as consumer revenue will inflect upwards.
What might it mean for Anthropic to become a consumer company at scale? For one thing, the company might have to reconsider its now-famous aversion to advertising. Time – and usage data – will tell. If Anthropic manages to retain the flood of new users checking out Claude, this fight with the US Government might prove to be the fulcrum to a major pivot in the company’s long term strategy.