I’ve used the image above for many years, mainly because I love how surprised the guy looks as he gazes into the crystal ball. Or maybe he’s just sat on something unpleasant. In any case, it pretty much sums up my approach to this, my 20th edition of annual predictions. I sit down, I might have an adult beverage on hand, and I just write until I feel like I’m done.
While reviewing my ’22 predictions (I did pretty well!) I promised to do something new: One post per predictions, ten posts total. But as I began that promised work, I realized it would test the limits of even my most dedicated readers (I see you, kids). So instead I wrote three long form posts, each with three or four predictions apiece. The first focused on AI, the second on advertising, and the third on markets, with a bonus call related to the ’24 election. Having now written all of them, I’m going to summarize them briefly in this “master post.” Grab your own favorite beverage, have a wonderful New Year, and read on!
- ChatGPT finds a business model. Because of course it will. Which leads to…
- Google launches a ChatGPT-inspired search interface. Because paranoia. Related…
- Microsoft launches “Enterprise Explorer” – because there isn’t a big company CEO who doesn’t want some AI to play with.
- There’ll be a war between the duopolies of Google/Facebook and Amazon/Apple. Grab your popcorn.
- Netflix will triumph. I know…but the next one’s even more far fetched…
- Twitter will rebound. (I’ll leave it there for now)
- Crypto will go sideways in ’23. But that’ll be a good thing.
- Tesla will continue to tank, and not because of Twitter.
- Tech IPOs will make a comeback by EOY.
- Trump will pull out of the ’24 presidential race.