It took me two weeks, 6000 words and nine posts, but I can finally round up my predictions for 2026 in one place. Here’s the complete list in one handy, blissfully shortened post. Thanks for reading, and once (and for good), I wish you a happy, healthy New Year.
#10 – The Feed Declines (Predictions 2026, #10)
The algorithmically induced sugar sludge that has dominated culture for more than ten years is failing, and 2026 will be the year most of us notice that trend. And the company that will be most impacted? Meta and its flagship Instagram app.
#9 – Anthropic Goes Public (Predictions 2026 #9)
Anthropic has a cleaner structure, cap table, and set of relationships than OpenAI, which should allow it to be more nimble in its journey to becoming a public company. In addition, I sense Anthropic’s corporate culture would embrace the responsibilities and reporting requirements inherent to being a public company. Anthropic also has a better financial story to tell – it’s been focused from day one on the enterprise market, where it is a leader.
#8 – AI Can’t Cost This Much (Predictions 2026, #8)
2026 will be a year of innovation when it comes to the cost of compute, as well in how much compute is actually needed to perform the magic we’ve come to expect from AI applications. It’s happened over and over again in this industry, and I think pricing the future based on the cost of the present is a losing bet.
#7 – The Year Tech Gets Even Bigger (Predictions 2026, #7)
For the past five or so years, tech giants have had to play defense when it comes to M&A and sweetheart partnerships – Meta was being sued over its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, Google over its consolidation of adtech and its domination of search distribution through deals with Apple and Samsung, among others. But in 2026, the governors are coming off.
#6 – Finally, Voice Interfaces For The Home (Predictions 2026, #6)
By year’s end, we’ll have ambient AI in our homes, and it will actually work as expected. This in turn will shift what we expect as consumers of technology, in our cars, on our phones, and in the world around us. It won’t be a revolution, but when we look back at 2026 ten years from now, we’ll realize that this was the year “ambient intelligence” took off.
#5 and #4 – Health Takes Center Stage, Open Evidence Acquired (Predictions 2026, #5 and #4)
2026 will be the year that health takes center stage in the societal debate around AI. And OpenEvidence will be acquired by either OpenAI, Google, Apple, Microsoft or another advertising-driven big tech player (let’s not forget that Microsoft owns LinkedIn). In 2026, everyone will have a point of view on how health and AI interact.
#3 – Magic and Mayhem (Predictions 2026, #3)
This will be the year that AI moves beyond chatbots and into the fabric of everyday life in ways that will surprise and delight hundreds of millions of people, changing what they thought they could accomplish and reordering economic productivity along the way. That in turn will drive tectonic shifts in the business models underpinning most companies reliant on digital technology. There will be lots of magic this year. But there will also be plenty of carnage as previously unbreachable moats start to crumble, not only in business, but also in society at large.
#2 – Battle Lines Are Drawn (Predictions 2026, #2)
This year, ideological battle lines will be drawn – you’re either in favor of the glorious future that AI promises, or you’re fighting the plutocrats seeking to cement their power through mechanisms of surveillance capitalism. The evolution of society with AI will be messy, ungoverned, and seemingly incomprehensible. But at its core lies an existential question: What happens to us when we build machines capable of fabricating reality, seemingly rendering us obsolete in the process?
#1 – Do You Trust The Conjurer? (Predictions 2026, #1)
In 2026, we’ll collectively decide if we trust generative AI, and any number of actors will prosper or fail based on that trust. Apple will leapfrog into the top echelon of AI companies, OpenAI will struggle, and large consumer brands will realize that in the context of AI sweeping through society, their most effective competitive advantage is the trust their brands evoke amongst consumers. 2026 will be the year that trust becomes the essential ingredient in business, culture, and society. And we’ll have the conjuration of generative AI to thank for the trend.
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