In Defense of Writing (and Reading, and Conversation)

Not often does a New York Times’ OpEd rouse me to respond – but this one certainly did:

I’m a College Professor. Writing Isn’t as Important as We Think.

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AI Data Dustups, Bond Market Tremors, and Whatever Muse Is

Meta’s Muse Mascot Is Terrifying.

I might just have to make a weekly news roundup part of the regular rotation here, as once again the noteworthy stories crowding my inbox are so numerous this morning I feel compelled to comment on each of them in turn. If you hate roundups, skip this post – but here are the top stories I find worthy of additional comment today:

  • OpenAI’s Math Problem = AI’s Data, Explainability, and Sourcing Problems. Yesterday OpenAI claimed to have solved a long standing maths problem having to do with Navier-Stokes equations for fluid motion, which for those of us who stopped doing maths in high school, is a Really Big Deal. But as Wired reports, it turns out OpenAI’s work may well have been juiced by prompt data input by two researchers working on the same problem. Adding to the intrigue: One of those researchers also works at Anthropic, and to advance his work, he and his colleague had used OpenAI’s Codex as well as Anthropic’s Claude platform. I’m sure we’ll get the HBO movie in due time, but for now, I think the larger questions are more interesting, starting with this one: Is OpenAI using “private” prompt data to train its internal systems?  The answer, given by OpenAI, is “we can’t be sure.” “While unlikely, we cannot rule out that de-identified data derived from their usage of our products helped improve our models⁠,” OpenAI wrote, which sounds an awful lot like a yes to me. Bonus additional questions raised by this dust up: Will there every be a way to know for sure? Probably not, because there’s not an industry defined approach to auditing AI systems at scale – and likely, there never will be. Like all of Big Tech, AI platforms really, really don’t want to be regulated or held to account for how their products are used, including internally.
  • Serious Tremors In Bond Land. If I ever tell you I understand how bond markets work, put me in stocks and toss tomatoes at my head. But I know this: When bonds get the sniffles, the world gets the flu. And right now all signals from the global bond market indicate a terrible head cold. The tipping point: The US has begun to intervene in bond markets in a way that puts the Trump administration at odds with the most powerful force in our economy not named NVIDIA: Wall Street traders. From the FT: “Slowly, and sometimes subtly, but surely, the voices calling out the administration’s inconsistencies and irrationalities are getting louder.” That might sound like pulling punches, but in the pages of the FT, it’s an all out fist fight. I’m watching this one closely.
  • Meta Puts a Genie on a Leash. If you read my rants regularly, you know I am deeply skeptical of using AI agents from companies whose core business model is selling you something other than AI agents. Of course, the first company to introduce personal AI agents at scale is….Meta. Dubbed “Muse,” Meta’s new AI agent can work on your behalf across the web, and initial reviews are generally positive. Meta’s video (screen shot above) introducing Muse shows the agent buying school supplies based on email lists, signing a user up for a 10K run, and rebooking cancelled flights. Meta has given Muse a cuddly mascot, which Google Gemini, when prompted, calls a “whimsical, cream-colored plush sprite.” OK, but I’ll call it what it is: terrifying*. Nearly 15 years ago I warned you all to not build your digital lives inside platforms like Facebook. I’ll repeat the warning, updated for the AI era: Digital agents like Muse may seem like magic genies, ready to do your bidding. But they’re on a leash held by Meta, and they work for Meta’s business model, not for you.

*It also looks like a thumb with handsless arms, but whatever. 

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Remembering Om Malik

Om Malik.

It seems almost quaint now, but there was once a version of the Internet ruled by influencers that were honest, high integrity folks who genuinely cared about the impact of their words.

Perhaps the most thoughtful of these was Om Malik, who passed away last week at the age of 59. Om was a colleague and a contemporary, and his site GigaOm was one of the earliest and most important partners at Federated Media, an early “record label” for bloggers that I launched in 2005.

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Quitting A Digital Habit

Amongst friends and family, I’m known as something of a digital curmudgeon. I’m usually the one person in group chats who does not use an iPhone, a habit I gave up in 2012 when I sensed that Apple was enclosing the entire mobile space. I stopped visiting Facebook and Instagram a decade ago, and I left Twitter in 2022, the year Musk took over. I refuse to employ AI chatbots as therapists, friends, or any kind of replacement for human engagement. I turned off all notifications on my phone – even for calls – 15 years ago.

Given my early bona fides in all things digital, I take a bit of pride in my heterodoxy, though in practice it creates friction, both for me and my friends and colleagues. Silencing notifications forced me into a new habit of checking my phone proactively, which one could argue has its own downsides. My Google phone breaks group chats, my absence from Meta’s products means I miss updates from friends and family, my aversion to AI therapy could mean I’m out of touch with how technology is changing society (though my adult children do keep me somewhat in the know on this count).

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The Trouble With Bees

This is not a honey bee.

There’s this throwaway conceit in the current season of Black Mirror that keeps tugging at me, and it’s Friday, so I thought I’d think out loud about it.

In Episode 1, “Common People,” the protagonist, a school teacher, is lecturing her young pupils about pollination. She casually explains how robotic bees have taken over for their organic ancestors, buzzing from flower to flower and, one presumes, keeping the world’s agricultural ecosystem from crashing. The exchange is meant to contextualize the episode as happening sometime in the near future – most of us know that the bee population is crashing, and the concept of autonomous insect drones doesn’t feel that far off. It’s also an elegant reference consistent with one of tech’s most fundamental beliefs – don’t worry, kids, technology can and will save us from ourselves!

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Technology, Humanity, and the Existential Test

I’m still digging through some of the pieces I posted at the now defunct NewCo Shift, and found this piece, adapted from a talk I gave at the Thrival Humans X Tech conference in Pittsburgh back in September of 2018. I was alarmed by trends that I saw intensifying – a push by the tech industry to deregulate their power, the growing influence of private company algorithms on public domains, the rise of autocratic politics and “technocapitalism.” Six years later, it feels like I could give this talk again today, nearly word for word – and it’d be even more relevant. 

—

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Wrestling With The Gray Lady

Find the Search button…

The other day my wife and I heard a report on our local public radio station that mentioned the Biden Administration’s American Climate Corps (ACC) initiative, a new program seeking to recruit 20,000 young people into jobs on the front line of the climate crisis. Modeled on Franklin Roosevelt’s Depression-Era Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), the program is a signature element of Biden’s response to what anyone with a pulse knows is the most pressing issue of our day: we’re destroying the planet through misguided economic incentives.

But despite the fact that the ACC was launched with much fanfare last Fall, my wife and I had never heard of it. We have three young adult children whose future feels in doubt because of climate change, and they’d never heard of it either – not a good sign for a program that hopes to recruit tens of thousands of people just like them. All five of us feel like we’re reasonably well informed. I mean, we read The New York Times, don’t we?

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Do We Even Have The Spine To Sacrifice, Just A Little Bit?

Thanks President Bush.

Old people are always complaining about how things were harder when they were young. Walking to school in the snow, uphill both ways, that whole thing. So forgive me as I embark on what initially might feel like that old man trope, but stay with me. I’m trying to make a larger point, and I have to start with a few stories of how things were in the Before Times.

So. Back when I was a kid, Big Things That Were Not Entirely In Our Control would happen. Presidents and Governors would get on the (usually black-and-white) TV, imploring us – all of us, mind you, every single citizen of these United States – to do something that would help alleviate the situation. The actions we were asked to take weren’t particularly terrifying – it’s not like we were getting called up to war (though the last-ever draft, for Vietnam, was still fresh in everyone’s mind.)

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No. TV Advertising Is Not Going to Become “Performance Driven”

Remember the “year of mobile”? That was the five-year period from roughly 2007 to 2012, when industry pundits annually declared that everything was about to change because of the smart phone. Mobile eventually did come to dominate the marketing landscape, but the shift took far longer than anyone expected.

I’m starting to think we’re in a similar cycle with streaming – only the transition from cable to digital television has taken far longer, and has been far, far messier.  I recall editing the February, 1994 cover story for Wired, in which we asked – thirty years ago! – if advertising as we knew it was finally dead. We opened that piece with a futuristic scenario in which advertising had changed completely:

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Google’s On The Field Now. Is It Being Too Cautious?

Google’s Gemini launch.

As hype escalated around the debut of ChatGPT more than a year ago, I predicted that OpenAI and Microsoft would rapidly develop consumer subscription service models for their nascent businesses. Later that year I wrote a piece speculating that Google would inevitably follow suit. If Google was smart, and careful, it had a chance to become “the world’s largest subscription service.” From that piece:

Google can’t afford to fall behind as its closest competitors throw massive resources at AI-driven products and services. But beyond keeping up, Google finds itself in an even higher-stakes transition: Its core business, search, may be shifting into an entirely new consumer model that threatens the very foundation of the company’s cash flow spigot: Advertising. 

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