This year I tried something new with my predictions, writing deeper posts on each one. I got to six, but I underestimated how long it would take to write 1,000 or so words for each post. I’m pushing past 10,000 words for the past week, and “predictions season” is pretty much over. I think it’s about time I gave all of us a break, and just got down to some rapid fire predictions. This will be my last predictions post, and most likely the one most likely to bring down my year end grade, because I’m just going to shoot from the hip. It’s something I’ve never really done before, but that’s why I’m doing it. These are notions, hunches, itches I’ve not scratched. But what the heck, this is for the fun of it. To them:
- Google’s Chromebook will triple its marketshare by the end of the year. I can’t figure out what its marketshare is now, but it’s pretty small. Another way of putting this is Chromebook will be a success this year.
- Obama will win the 2012 election, thanks in part to the tech community rallying behind him due to issues like SOPA, visas, and free speech.
- Both Apple and Amazon will make billion-dollar acquisitions. More interestingly, so will Facebook.
- Android will be brought to heel by Google, eliciting both massive complaints and cheers, depending on where you sit.
- Microsoft Windows Phone will become the Bing of mobile (IE, move into double digit market share).
- Microsoft Xbox will integrate meaningfully with the web (Kinect is key), and start to compete in social across the digital spectrum.
- IBM will emerge as a key player in the consumer Internet.
- China will be caught spying on US corporations, especially tech and commodity companies. Somewhat oddly, no one will (seem to) care.
- A heads up display for the web will launch that actually is worth using, but most likely in limited use cases.
That’s about it for now. My next post will summarize all my 2012 predictions, so there’s one neat URL to refer to for future reference. Have a great 2012!