Merry Christmas and Happy New Year John.

I am looking forward to seeing the book.

• Posted by: MikeM
• December 22, 2004 11:59 AM

GOAT RODEO RIDER NEWS
Will your new business be a goat rodeo? What is a goat rodeo? Can I be invited to a goat rodeo? Should you launch the book at a goat rodeo? Is black tie appropriate at a goat rodeo?
But most of all, JB, what do you REALLY think about my blog (fdldd.mindsay.com)?

• Posted by: fdldd
• December 22, 2004 12:07 PM

Re 4.
Announced today in the Publisher's Lunch newsletter, Wired editor Chris Anderson has signed a deal to extend his article on the power of the tail into THE LONG TAIL, a book-length version of a magazine piece about the end of "mainstream" in popular culture. Hyperion will reportedly publish the book in a major deal for just over $500,000 (as reported by NY Magazine).

Re 17.
Should we notify Siebel now that you'll be needing an implementation?

Have a wonderful holidays. This past year, it has been wonderful to read your SearchBlog, and I too look forward to The Book.

• Posted by: James Sherrett
• December 22, 2004 12:09 PM

great stuff, john. inspiring me to write some myself --- hope to post within a few days on my fotolog.... happy holidays!

• Posted by: Scott Heiferman
• December 22, 2004 12:52 PM

I have really enjoyed reading your blog this year too. Thanks.

One question I have regarding your predictions, though, is why you suggest that one's principles must somehow conflict with dreaded "monetization"? I would think that its a good thing for people to be able to do what they love and get paid for it. I know that sounds like a cliche, but I think that is a very principled goal.

Happy Holidays!

• Posted by: Vanilla Chin
• December 22, 2004 5:47 PM

I think this is about as good a time as any to say that I subscribe to over 75 blogs (all popular technology blogs). ...and this year, your blog has been one of the few that has really added value day after day. This "year-end" post is no exception.

Looking forward to the book.

Happy Holidays!

• Posted by: Toby Patke
• December 23, 2004 1:47 AM

Re: #13: Tivo is already superannuated.

Take a Mac + eyeTV + iTunes + Keyspan Express and you've got a DVR, jukebox, DVD player.

All Apple needs to do is come out with a very tiny Mac designed to do interlaced WebTV-like video output and we're all set.

eyeTV doesn't do tuning for cable boxes yet except through analog coax--they need an IR blaster or serial interface--but as soon as they do, I'm taking my old Cube, a VGA-to-video adapter, a wireless keyboard, and a 200 MB hard drive, and it becomes my entire home entertainment system.

This is a huge opportunity for Apple, because the only missing piece is the eyeTV gap and VGA-to-video, both easily solvable.

• Posted by: Glenn Fleishman
• December 23, 2004 7:59 AM

This is really a great and provocative list, John. I think #15 is particularly exciting and long overdue. I hope you're right!

• Posted by: Dick Costolo
• December 23, 2004 9:11 AM

apple g5 laptop anybody?

• Posted by: owensoft
• December 23, 2004 9:50 AM

Yet another prediction/hope. None of these search engines will be around in December of 2005
http://www.georgewblog.com/2004/12/does-everyone-have-search-engine-worst.html

• Posted by: FeldBum
• December 23, 2004 12:49 PM

"In December 2005 John Battelle will declare #3 remarkably prescient"

• Posted by: Karl Eldon
• December 23, 2004 3:59 PM

uhıyu

• Posted by: ter
• December 24, 2004 12:17 AM

2005: frustration with comment spam will drive someone to go on a multi-state killing spree - unless google does something wonderful like recognizing and eliminating comment spammer's pagerank attempts, perhaps taking responsibility for its complicity in this ecosystem.

• Posted by: tonx
• December 24, 2004 12:42 AM

After reading these, I had to do my own, JB, something a little more dangerous. I hope you like.

• Posted by: Surely Mongog
• December 24, 2004 1:12 AM

We all hope TiVo will sell to Apple? I guess I'm not 'we'. Why would anyone want such a great toy to be owned by the most evil corporation in the industry?

• Posted by: Jack
• December 24, 2004 10:42 AM

Who....f*cking....cares what a pencil-necked geek thinks about pencil-necked geekery????

• Posted by: mike
• December 24, 2004 9:33 PM

Hey "Mike" ... why bother reading the article, then the posts, just to strike an Atlas Shrugged pose?

Apple the most evil company ever ... LoL
Keep sipping your kool-aid and go back to sleep.

I found John's missives timely and not that out on a limb, actually.

If your not going to care, try harder please.

-J-

• Posted by: Jonathan Gibson
• December 25, 2004 10:02 AM

To the reader, "mike" who wrote: Who....f*cking....cares what a pencil-necked geek thinks about pencil-necked geekery????
I have bad news for you, "mike." JB is not pencil necked. He is hot.

• Posted by: fdldd
• December 27, 2004 2:43 PM

Re. 15, mobile web is happening, innovations are plenty. But I don't think there will be a single standout 'that makes sense for the average user'. If anything, voice driven client application on mobile devices would be a good contender.

Number 18, if I may add, is that in 2005, a high-profile blogger will be fired or 'resign' from the his/her day job because of improper blogging.

• Posted by: Yadong
• December 27, 2004 3:59 PM

My prediction: 2005 will be the year of Bluetooth! And Apple's stock will plunge back into the teens.

• Posted by: Robert
• December 27, 2004 9:54 PM

Many new technology will appear in 2005, will new competitors emerge?

• Posted by: Deepor
• January 2, 2005 8:23 AM

John,

60 Minutes just did a lengthy piece on Google. Included in the piece was using a cell phone to read barcodes at supermarkets and also using search through cell phones. What are the impications here.It appears to me that for Google to announce that cell search is a future initiative along with barcode reading, they would already have some sort of agreement with the patent holders of that tech(ie. Neomedia). Is Neomedia the third party plaform player that you have listed as number 10?

Best regards,

Greg Georgas

• Posted by: Greg Georgas
• January 3, 2005 3:33 PM

First of all the internet has become stagnant and is in dire need of something new. All the internet providers and search engines are doing the same things. It has become so big that it is hard for any one particular provider to get an edge on the rest. My plan would do that. I am talking about something that everyone who uses the internet would be very excited about. Something that would attract customers worldwide and not only bring more customers to your internet provider, search engine and home page, but with this new service subscribers would leave the other providers and switch to yours. There is absolutely no doubt about this.

Once again, the internet needs something new and exciting! Thank you very much for your time!

Respectively submitted,

Jim Hopper
ostrchop@msn.com

• Posted by: Jim Hopper
• January 15, 2005 5:50 AM

DJ UNIMPORTANT PREDICTS THE UNIMPORTANT FUTURE/2005:

1. Shepard Fairey's Andre The Giant Has A Posse project will reveal itself to be a vehicle for an international movement. (I thought you knew. Here's the tip: One does not arbitrarily create a pure vehicle-without-substance *creative common license brand* from every single nazi-centrific (except nazi, of course) identity ever, and leave something like that lying around all over the place, and not expect someone to eventually pick it up and run.)

2. A new method of internet reading will be produced that functions similarly to Cory Doctorow's "Eastern Standard Time" but will incorporate the syncopation of the author's intended authorial voice. By reading single flashing words that arrive as predetermined rhythms based on programmed syncopation replicating the author's own presentation of the information, the tempo of display can be adjusted until reader absorption rate's increase anywhere from 20% to 70%, thereby creating the long-anticipated demand for real electronic books.

3. Someone with less savvitude than you or I will notice that Cannabis Culture magazine, the true largest-read marijuana magazine in the world, has a ten-page bi-monthly seed catalog and has managed to ship top-quality marijuana seed to the underground US growers for years.

4. My mash-up of songwriter Spearhead's Bomb The World and Head Automatica's Brooklyn Is Burning ("track2, please"), produced by Scott Harding (aka Casualty Zero of allmusic.com's self-immolation this year) will increase the attention I am getting by new rock stars for my guerilla-style, live and recorded obliterations of all things rock music.

5. Videogames will be minorly upstaged as a collective form by the advent of a only part-mechanical type of participative :electronic: interaction that does not rely on narrative as much as it does imaginative real-time application of metaphor, which in turn will make use of corollaries of the recent development in human kind which has taken place. This will happen any day now, actually, as a necessary momentum or critical mass has been achieved of the assorted complimentary human who it is squired towards, and who exist in large enough quantities to constitute a buying power. Furthermore, the kinds of technology for the putting together of this sort of thing is quite common place and does not require large investments of venture capital, so anyone with a good garage and correctright-minded (is correctright a word?) friends can come up with this market-creating item in the same way Ford perfected the automobile engine in his kitchen. (Or was that the Tesla-induced motor?) So, think of it as a highly-demanded hybrid of the wireless phone, a Gameboy, and something with the (previously misunderstood) functioning of a Cloudbuster. In other words, common-market, preoccupative, functional esoterica. (See #15.) Imagine what boingboing.net being about as, in fact, the Ground Zeroing of a reinvention of commercialism that brings into play zen conciousness, *our* collective reincarnative nature, and Buddah-powered toys for everyone who are "what human beings (who are people) have become." Got all that?

6. People will start defining record labels and artists such as anticon and the Arrest-The-President All-Stars overground, to differentiate between people who are those who are doing interesting and moving not yet entirely noticeable things–ie underground–and people who are interesting and lively noticeable things ie overground. For practical reasons: Too much stuff that is no longer underground is not entirely pop, either.

7. People will notice that rock music en toto is completely irrelevant, as defiance itself–be it funk, rap, rock, or dance–is patently captured, processed, and developed ie ordinary. After Jack Black's spot-on depiction of caricature in School Of Rock, even second-graders can see: Rock as a form is dismissed. It is for this–the real reason–that album sales will continue to plummet. Internet music sales, however, have only begun to soar. Read Marshall McLuhan's Medium is the Massage, or see number 7.

8. Someone will notice that Arthur C. Clarke prophesied reality television in his '53 sci-fi classic, Childhood's End. A protagonist in the story also makes the startling proclamation that that society of the future has become passively unhinged because the average person watches a whole three hours of television a day. (Believe it or not, his use of italics.)

9. Reality television will begin to prove itself to be the training ground for actual superstars.

10. The Passion Of The Reefer will be released on DVD April 20, 2005. It is one of the five-to-ten films of the next year that will successfully herald in the new style of film, first dismissed as "porn without sex" but later to be understood as the progenitor of content production that capitalizes upon internet porn's new sub-textless content format.
11. Someone will notice a sci-fi writer named Spider Robinson has had *an inordinately large number of remarkably sustainable ideas presented most entertainingly* while he is yet alive and publishing.

12. Sci-fi will be re-named, re-invented, and re-discovered, not in that order, and not without some resistance.

13. Physically, anything more alien than ourselves will not ever be discovered. Inversely, more people will begin to notice the seemingly infinite number of species here on this world as having been open to dialogue for some time. Someone will point out that specieal prejudice by humans upon other kinds far exceeds acceptable guidelines of sentience by any respectable standard. More human people will begin recognizing "people" as not being strictly limited to–and especially not automatically tantamount to–"human species."

14. Off-world travel begins. Okay, so not until '06, '07 at the latest. You know? Well, do you know that Spider and (wife-dancer-partner) Jeanne Robinson together wrote a trilogy about artists beings who move to space called The Star Dancers (who wind up being the next stage of human evolution) and that we are going to begin to see zero-gravity being used in commercials and movies and as part of our day-to-day lives? That's right. Off-world travel means off-world commercial, and off-world commercials means off-world entertainment.

15. An antigravity and invisibility ring with personal forcefield that allows you to breathe underwater. I mean, for crying out telepathic, it is the Future! It's what I came here for. Anything less is blogging.

* (I am, have been, or will be on the payroll of everyone or someone connected to everyone I have mentioned here. And that's about as linear as someone as *(DJ) Unimportant as I am* can be without sounding like I'm bragging.)

• Posted by: Surely Serious
• May 2, 2005 9:39 AM

Firt of all you provide very excellent content on internet as well as search engine. At my point of view search engine also do the same as you suggested, search engien are user freindly and every one to use it. When new technology is come it will take a time to accepting. I think this is about as good a time. your blog has been one of the few that has really added value day after day.

Regards
Jim
Tatvasoft

• Posted by: Tatvasoft - Offshore Software Outsourcing Development India
• October 4, 2005 12:18 AM

Videogames will be minorly upstaged as a collective form by the advent of a only part-mechanical type of participative :electronic: interaction that does not rely on narrative as much as it does imaginative real-time application of metaphor, which in turn will make use of corollaries of the recent development in human kind which has taken place. This will happen any day now, actually, as a necessary momentum or critical mass has been achieved of the assorted complimentary human who it is squired towards, and who exist in large enough quantities to constitute a buying power. Furthermore, the kinds of technology for the putting together of this sort of thing is quite common place and does not require large investments of venture capital, so anyone with a good garage and correctright-minded (is correctright a word?) friends can come up with this market-creating item in the same way Ford perfected the automobile engine in his kitchen. (Or was that the Tesla-induced motor?) So, think of it as a highly-demanded hybrid of the wireless phone, a Gameboy, and something with the (previously misunderstood) functioning of a Cloudbuster. In other words, common-market, preoccupative, functional esoterica. (See #15.) Imagine what boingboing.net being about as, in fact, the Ground Zeroing of a reinvention of commercialism that brings into play zen conciousness, *our* collective reincarnative nature, and Buddah-powered toys for everyone who are "what human beings (who are people) have become." Got all that?

• Posted by: Bangbus
• October 6, 2005 10:58 PM

Cé qui Observabilis ? Qui y'a derrière. Quel groupuscule peu scrupuleux sur la qualité de nos dactylographies il y a derrière ? Il a un petit non, ce gas là (ou cette fille)?

• Posted by: Tzecoatl
• October 23, 2005 10:47 AM

interaction that does not rely on narrative as much as it does imaginative real-time application of metaphor, which in turn will make use of corollaries of the recent development in human kind which has taken place. This will happen any day now, actually, as a necessary momentum or critical mass has been achieved of the assorted complimentary human who it is squired towards, and who exist in large enough quantities to constitute a buying power. Furthermore, the kinds of technology for the putting together of this sort of thing is quite common place and does not require large investments of venture capital, so anyone with a good garage and correctright-minded (is correctright a word?) friends can come up with this market-creating item in the same way Ford perfected the automobile engine in his kitchen.

• Posted by: Bangbus
• December 13, 2005 11:54 AM

I can't believe it, my co-worker just bought a car for $36355. Isn't that crazy!

• Posted by: Betsy Markum
• January 19, 2006 8:54 AM

Savoni says the new law violates his privacy, comparing it to America's antiterrorism law that allows authorities to monitor Internet use without notifying the person in question.

• Posted by: site ekle
• December 29, 2006 2:22 PM

friends can come up with this market-creating item in the same way Ford perfected the automobile engine in his kitchen.

by sevsohbet

• Posted by: sohbet
• December 29, 2006 9:50 PM

Ford perfected the automobile engine in his kitchen.

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• December 30, 2006 9:49 AM

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• Posted by: fuat
• March 30, 2007 6:49 AM