free html hit counter December 2008 - Page 2 of 5 - John Battelle's Search Blog

Predictions

By - December 21, 2008

I’m going to review my predictions for 2008 this coming week. I just re read them. Very interesting. I’d love your thoughts. I am honored to see them as #1 in Google for “predictions 2008.”

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Yahoo Has Good Timing on Trust: New Policy on Data Retention

By - December 17, 2008

Given the comments happening down below on whether you all trust Google, Yahoo seems to be pretty nimble with this announcement:

Today, Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ:YHOO – News) announced a new global data retention policy that sets an industry-leading approach to user data privacy. This new policy strengthens Yahoo!’s relationship of trust with its 500 million users world-wide and enhances its longtime leadership on privacy.

Under the new policy, Yahoo! will anonymize user log data within 90 days with limited exceptions for fraud, security and legal obligations. Yahoo! will also expand the policy to apply not only to search log data but also page views, page clicks, ad views and ad clicks.

Twitter Has a Bad Hair Moment

By - December 16, 2008

Yep, that’s what it looks like right now. Those of you who have never seen Twitter, ignore this.

Odd Lookin Twitter-1

Blah Blah Armageddon Blah Blah Google Lowering Estimates Blah Blah Blah Target 600?!!!

By - December 15, 2008

Ugly Year

No, really. Check it out from Weisel (pdf download):

Estimate Changes: Since the end of 3Q the currency picture has added to an already volatile consumer situation. Specifically indexing 3Q at 100, 4Q results would be 92.7 just based on currency shifts alone. That coupled with a more muted consumer outlook causes us to lower our 4Q and 2009 estimates. For 2008, we are decreasing our net revenue estimate from $15.9bn to $15.7bn. We are decreasing our pro forma EBITDA estimate from $9.3bn to $9.2bn. We are also decreasing our pro forma EPS estimate from $19.50 to $19.19. This compares with 2008 consensus for net revenue, pro forma EBITDA and EPS of $15.8bn, $9.3bn and $19.41, respectively. For 2009, we are decreasing our net revenue estimate from $18.4bn to $17.8bn. We are decreasing our pro forma EBITDA estimate from $10.7bn to $10.4bn. We are also decreasing our pro forma EPS estimate from $21.00 to $20.75. This compares with 2009 consensus for net revenue, pro forma EBITDA and EPS of $18.4bn, $10.8bn and $21.72, respectively. We are decreasing our 12-month target for Google from $650 to $600.

Now, do you buy this? Clearly, you do not. Or Google would not be at 310.

Well, This Will Be Worth Watching: Google and Net Neutrality

By - December 14, 2008

Recall my interview with Vint Cerf, the guru who Google hired to champion net neutrality, among other things? Where he said this:

Here’s what (folks like Whitacre) are saying: “Well, we built this network and we can do anything we want with it. And by the way, the FCC has now essentially released us of any common carrier obligations we ever had, thank you very much, and so we can do whatever we want to and why don’t you just buzz off.”

That sort of grates a little bit. Gee, excuse me, but we don’t get a free ride at all. We spend an awful lot of money being connected to the public Internet backbone, in addition to which we pay a lot of money for our own Internet backbone that links all of our computer centers together at substantial capacity, which is necessary to do what we do.

Moreover, the subscriber has been told (by the telcos and cable ISPs) that if you pay for broadband service, you’ll get access to everywhere on the Internet. But then they’re saying, in the same breath or same paragraph anyway, “Well actually, it’s not quite like that because the places you’ll be able to get to in this broadband mode are only the ones that we’ve done business deals with. So well we’re going to shut out Google unless they pay or, you know, shut out eBay, or Amazon.”

And so this means that the subscriber’s choice has suddenly been circumscribed by what business model the people at these broadband service-providers have been able to invent. My view of their invention is that the business model seems very 20th century and very backwards looking.

Now read this from the WSJ, and this from Om. From the Journal piece:



Google Inc. has approached major cable and phone companies that carry Internet traffic with a proposal to create a fast lane for its own content, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Google has traditionally been one of the loudest advocates of equal network access for all content providers.

At risk is a principle known as network neutrality: Cable and phone companies that operate the data pipelines are supposed to treat all traffic the same — nobody is supposed to jump the line.

Oh. My.

Updated: Om says Google was not going to turn it’s back on NN and the Journal was “confused.”

Considering Heresy: Buying a PC

By -

I’m seriously considering not buying more Macs this season, as I usually do. Instead, I am thinking about buying PCs. I have a much longer post in my about why, but before I publish that rant, I want to ask a simple question of you all: Do you love or hate your PCs? Why?

PS – What I hear from my pals is that the machines are amazing these days, but the OS is really bad. True? False?

No, Google Won't Buy the NYT. Google.Org Should (Again)

By - December 13, 2008

I first posited this back in January. The idea is back. From the Deal:

As the New York Times Co. is negotiating with lenders over its debt, speculation has been floating around the blogosphere, pushing the premise that Google Inc. should acquire the beleaguered Gray Lady. The thesis (or, rumor, as some would put it) has been around since the beginning of the year, with SpliceToday on Thursday reintroducing the idea of the unorthodox union of the stalwart of old media with the scion of new media.