Blah Blah Armageddon Blah Blah Google Lowering Estimates Blah Blah Blah Target 600?!!!

No, really. Check it out from Weisel (pdf download): Estimate Changes: Since the end of 3Q the currency picture has added to an already volatile consumer situation. Specifically indexing 3Q at 100, 4Q results would be 92.7 just based on currency shifts alone. That coupled with a more muted…

Ugly Year

No, really. Check it out from Weisel (pdf download):

Estimate Changes: Since the end of 3Q the currency picture has added to an already volatile consumer situation. Specifically indexing 3Q at 100, 4Q results would be 92.7 just based on currency shifts alone. That coupled with a more muted consumer outlook causes us to lower our 4Q and 2009 estimates. For 2008, we are decreasing our net revenue estimate from $15.9bn to $15.7bn. We are decreasing our pro forma EBITDA estimate from $9.3bn to $9.2bn. We are also decreasing our pro forma EPS estimate from $19.50 to $19.19. This compares with 2008 consensus for net revenue, pro forma EBITDA and EPS of $15.8bn, $9.3bn and $19.41, respectively. For 2009, we are decreasing our net revenue estimate from $18.4bn to $17.8bn. We are decreasing our pro forma EBITDA estimate from $10.7bn to $10.4bn. We are also decreasing our pro forma EPS estimate from $21.00 to $20.75. This compares with 2009 consensus for net revenue, pro forma EBITDA and EPS of $18.4bn, $10.8bn and $21.72, respectively. We are decreasing our 12-month target for Google from $650 to $600.

Now, do you buy this? Clearly, you do not. Or Google would not be at 310.

Author: John Battelle

A founder of NewCo (current CEO), sovrn (Chair), Federated Media, Web 2 Summit, The Industry Standard, Wired. Author, investor, board member (Acxiom, Sovrn, NewCo), bike rider, yoga practitioner.

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