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Happy 2012!

By - December 31, 2011

I’ve been quiet on Searchblog for most of the holidays, but I don’t expect that to continue in 2012. This will be the year of focusing on just two things: Federated Media, and The Book. Both will drive a lot of thinking, writing, and dialog on this site.

I’ve been on vacation these past few days and it’s given me a fair amount of time to reflect on the past year, as well as on what’s to come for 2012. Expect my annual predictions post in the next few days. Meanwhile, have a great New Year’s Eve, and here’s to a great year ahead.

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2011 Predictions: How Did I Do?

By - December 19, 2011

(image) For many years now I’ve made predictions, and for just as many years I review how I did. This is the week I do the reviewing, my predictions for 2012 should arrive around the New Year, assuming I find the right inspiration.

2011 was a strange year in many ways. We lost Steve Jobs, stupid Internet legislation reared its ugly head yet again in the form of SOPA, Internet IPOs came back in a big way (but didn’t perform as well as most would have liked), and the world woke up to the implications of programmatic buying and Big Data, in a Very Big Way.

As I look back on my predictions of twelve months ago, I think I did a pretty good job, but left plenty of room for improvement. Here’s a rundown of how I did, with some supporting citations, where appropriate:

Prediction #1: We’ll see the rise of a meme which I’ll call “The Web Reborn.” 

If you read this site closely, you’ll have noticed that I’m a bit up in arms about the impact this whole “AppWorld” phenomenon is having on the “real web.” AppWorld is not the Web, in fact, it’s utterly un-weblike. I’ve written about this all year long, too mostly little effect in the larger world. But just recently a meme has risen, in fact, that sounds an awful lot like what I predicted. To wit:

Dave Winer: Why apps are not the future and Enough with the apps already

Doc Searls: Broadband vs. Internet

Jonathan Zittrain: The PC is dead. Why no angry nerds?

Scott Hanselman: Apps are too much like 1990’s CD-ROMs and not enough like the Web

And of course, my latest: On This Whole “Web Is Dead” Meme

Score: I think I called this right. There is a robust movement toward saving the core principles that made the web what it is. But it’s at the early stages at this point. Score: 7 of 10. 

Prediction #2: Voice will become a critical interface for computing (especially mobile apps). 

Hello, Siri…I’d say this one happened, with bells on. And it’s just the beginning. Score this a 9 out of 10 (because Siri, while very important, is still not as good as it can be. Then again, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all made voice moves this year as well).

Prediction 3: DSPs (Demand Side Platforms) will fade into the fabric of larger marketing platforms. 

This one is hard to quantify, it’s more of a feeling – DSPs were the Big Scary Development in the ad industry a year ago, and now…not so much. They are just part of the world we live in, and programmatic buying is a fact of life, one that is growing very, very quickly. Publishers have responded with their own adtech (FM purchased Lijit, for example, Google bought AdMeld), and on we go. I think I got this right, in the main.

Score: 8 of 10.

Prediction 4: MediaBank will emerge as a major independent player in the marketing world, playing off its cross channel reach (outside of digital) and providing an alternative to the conflicted digital platforms at Facebook, Microsoft, Google, and Yahoo.

Well, MediaBank merged with its main competitor, DDS, to form MediaOcean, run by the CEO of MediaBank. And the combined company is a behemoth, one capable of standing toe to toe with Google on several fronts. I think this one absolutely happened.

Score: 10 of 10.

Prediction 5: The Mac App Store will be a big hit, at least among Mac users, and may well propel Mac sales beyond expectations.

I’m not quite sure how to score this one. I don’t get the sense the Mac App Store was a big buzzy hit, but Apple recently released numbers about its success – 100 million downloads in the first six months of its existence (the last six months of this year).

And the company’s Mac sales are for sure on a roll, though I don’t know if one can attribute this to the Mac App Store. In short, it might be too early to call this one definitively, but net net, the trending is good.

Score: 7 out of 10.

Prediction 6: Apple will attempt to get better at social networking, fail, and cut a deal with Facebook.

Oh boy, I got this so tantalizingly right, or wrong…depending on how you score it. Let’s break it down. “Apple will attempt to get better at social networking…” Check – Apple introduced Ping late in 2010 and then updated it throughout the year.  “…fail…” Check. Ping never really took off. “…and cut a deal with Facebook.” DOOOOH. No way. If only I had said “…and cut a deal with Twitter….” I should have seen that Apple would never play nice with Facebook, if only due to the conflict around owning the business of media consumption. It sure did try, but negotiations broke down, according to most reports.

Score: 6 of 10.

Prediction 7: Apple will begin to show signs of the same problems that plagued Microsoft in the mid 90s, and Google in the past few years: Getting too big, too full of themselves, and too focused on their own prior success.

Now showing this prediction came true won’t be easy, but let’s take a few stories throughout the year as proof points. First, most of the “Web reborn” backlash (#1 above) is a response to Apple’s restrictive iOS. Then there’s the FT’s unqualified success in routing around Apple (see PC’s coverage), which nearly every major media and entertainment company is watching very closely. And there are plenty of rumblings (though not nearly as many as with Facebook, see #13):

IDC offers scathing prediction of certain death for Apple’s iAd program

Apple Made A Deal With The Devil (No, Worse: A Patent Troll)

Apple arrogance exposed by iPad undesign

All in all, I probably didn’t nail this one. But I’m not going to say it isn’t starting to happen. Score: 5 of 10.

Prediction 8: Microsoft will have a major change in leadership. I am not predicting Ballmer will leave, but I think he and the company will most likely bring in very senior new talent to open new markets or shift direction in important current markets.

Well, thanks to the Andy Lees move last week, I look like a genius. Also, long time Microsoft exec Yusuf Medhi, responsible for the most important piece of Microsoft’s new business (Bing), has been moved to its next possibly most important line of business, Xbox. Not to mention Ballmer’s various shakeups of senior management this year. Plus, rumblings continue about whether Ballmer is the right man for the job – to the point of some wags speculating that Gates might come back. As if. Score: 9 of 10. 

Prediction 9: The public markets will be surprisingly open to major new Internet deals.

Well, I could argue this is utterly true. After all, compared to 2010, there was a raft of Internet deals that got out this year – Demand, LinkedIn, Zillow, Angie’s List, Pandora, Zynga – with many more filings pending public debut. But none of them did very well – most if not all are trading below offering price. So the market let them get out, but isn’t trading them up. So was the market “open”? Yes. Was it enthusiastic after open? No.

Score: 7 of 10.

Prediction 10: The tablet market will have a year of incoherence. Apple will dominate with the iPad due to a lack of an alternative touchstone.

Well, that was way too easy. Exactly what happened – HP tried, failed. RIM tried, failed. Amazon is trying, and the early reviews ain’t great. We’ll see. Score: 10 of 10. 

Prediction 11: “Social deals” will morph to become a standard marketing outlet for all business, and by year’s end be seen as a standard part of any marketer’s media mix.

I think this has happened – nearly every small business has now heard of daily deals, and most forward leaning companies both large and small are using deals as a channel like any other (search, Yellow Pages, etc.). Don’t forget that a year ago, when I wrote this prediction, folks were talking about the deal market as something totally unique, like DSPs.

Related, in this prediction I also wrote “I’m tempted to say Facebook will abandon its own Deals offering for a deal with Groupon, but I’m not sure that will unfold in one year.” Facebook did indeed bail on its Deals offering, but did not cut a deal with Groupon. (Foursquare did).

Score: 9 of 10. 

Prediction 12: Groupon will fend off an acquisition by a major carrier, probably AT&T or Verizon. It’s possible they’ll sell, but I doubt it.

Google tried to buy Groupon around the time I made this prediction, but failed. I am unaware of any other suitors for the company on its way to its IPO, but I’m not privy to what might have happened. Nothing was publicly reported, however, so I’ll have to say I whiffed this one.

Score: 0 of 10.

Prediction 13: Facebook will decline as a force in the Internet world, as measured by buzz. The company will continue to be seen as Big Brother in the press, and struggle with internal issues related to growth. Also, it will lose some attention/share to upstarts. However, its share of marketing dollars and reach will increase.

OK, I think I got this one right, but one can argue, as always. Here are a litany of headlines over the year:

Amid backlash, Facebook tries to save face (Cnet)

Facebook as the New AOL (RWW)

Facebook Is AOLifying the Internet—and That Sucks (Gizmodo)

Facebook is gaslighting the web. We can fix it. (Anil Dash)

How Facebook is Killing Your Authenticity (Steve Cheney)

It’s time for a Facebook intervention (TNW)

President Obama Doesn’t Let His Daughters Use Facebook (HP)

The Decline and Fall of Facebook (Cringely)

I could find more, but I think you get a picture here of a broad swath of “buzz makers” questioning the company. Meanwhile, according to all reports, the company is killing it in revenue.

Score: 8 of 10. 

Prediction 14: We’ll see major privacy related legislation in the US brought to the floor of Congress, and then fail for lack of consensus. But that will drive a significant shift in how our culture understands its relationship to the world our industry is building, and that’s a good thing.

Well, we had quite a number of these bills brought to Congress in one way or another. I probably should not have used the words “to the floor,” as that implies open debate. Nearly everyone in Congress and the Executive branch talks about some kind of privacy legislation, but no one can seem to agree what that means.

As of late Fall, seven different legislators have introduced bills. But as far as I can tell, none have really gotten anywhere. However, the conversation around the issues has accelerated significantly, as predicted.

Score: 9 of 10. 

In summary, I think my predictions fared pretty well. If you take a score of 7 or more as a “hit,” 4-6 as a “foul ball,” and below 4 as a “strikeout,” I hit 10 of 14, fouled off 3 of 14, and whiffed massively just once.

So, how do you think I did?!

Related:

Predictions 2011

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

Help Us Shape The Signal Conferences in 2012

By - November 22, 2011

I’ve spent the better part of a few days thinking through the theme(s) of FM’s Signal series of conferences for the upcoming year. I’ve got a ton of thoughts scrawled across my whiteboards, but then a thought woke me up in the middle of the night – why don’t I ask all of you what you think are the most important trends for digital marketing in 2012? (This crowdsourcing thing, it might just take off…).

So I signed up for PollDaddy and created my first ever Searchblog poll. You can pick three of the choices below, and/or add your own topic at the bottom. So help a brother out, and let me know what you think!

The Web 2 Summit Playlist

By - October 23, 2011

Tons of folks have asked me for the “official” playlist this year. Each year I choose music to sample while folks are coming on or off stage, or as the audience comes in or out of the main room. This year I was hit with a wave of nostalgia – for reasons that I’ll explain later – and I made a list that spanned nearly all eight years I’ve been programming the event.

I have to say, I’m really, really proud of how the event came off, of all the folks who made it happen (including our speakers, staff, advisory board, and my partners at TechWeb and O’Reilly).

The playlist is 109 songs, and I’m way too lazy (or tired) to figure out how to put them into an actual live app. So here’s a picture of them. If any of you have suggestions for how I might create a playlist, I’m all ears. I’ve been looking for a good app for that for some time, and I keep not finding the right one….


Web 2: But Wait, There's More (And More….) – Best Program Ever. Period.

By - October 13, 2011

I appreciate all you Searchblog readers out there who are getting tired of my relentless Web 2 Summit postings. And I know I said my post about Reid Hoffman was the last of its kind. And it was, sort of. Truth is, there are a number of other interviews happening as well, ones that I am not personally doing. And I wanted to post a last chance for any of you to ask any of these folks questions as well. I’ll be in touch with the winners of the contest (details below) soon, but here are some other interviews of note:web2.png

U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, Oregon Interviewed by best-selling author of Game Change, John Heilemann.

Paul Otellini, CEO, Intel I am doing this one, but it’s quite short as Paul is also doing a short presentation, so I figured a call for questions might not be needed.

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Help Me Interview Reid Hoffman, Founder, LinkedIn (And Win Free Tix to Web 2)

By - October 12, 2011

hoffman.jpegOur final interview at Web 2 is Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn and legendary Valley investor. Hoffman is now at Greylock Partners, but his investment roots go way back. A founding board member of PayPal, Hoffman has invested in Facebook, Flickr, Ning, Zynga, and many more.

As he wears (at least) two hats, I’ll be asking Reid to not only discuss LinkedIn’s business and industry (think jobs), but also ask him to ponder the culture of our industry, and the current economic and investment client.

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Help Me Interview the Founders of Quora (And Win Free Tix to Web 2)

By - October 11, 2011

cheever.jpegNext up on the list of interesting folks I’m speaking with at Web 2 are Charlie Cheever and Adam D’Angelo, the founders of Quora. Cheever and D’Angelo enjoy (or suffer from) Facebook alumni pixie dust – they left the social giant to create Quora in 2009. It grew quickly after its public launch in 2010, inspiring some to claim it was the best structured Q&A site ever. They’ve also snagged funding led by Benchmark. As far as I know, this is the duo’s first major on stage interview together.

I’ve used Quora, a bit, and probably will be using it a lot as I start researching my book in earnest. But I’m curious as to how the service scales beyond its current place as a repository of quality – yet incomplete – knowledge. I’m also curious about its business model.

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Help Me Interview Ross Levinsohn, EVP, Yahoo (And Win Free Tix to Web 2)

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rossl.jpegPerhaps no man is braver than Ross Levinsohn, at least at Web 2. First of all, he’s the top North American executive at a long-besieged and currently leaderless company, and second because he has not backed out of our conversation on Day One (this coming Monday). I spoke to Ross yesterday, and wanted to wait on asking your input on what I should ask him till we had spoken.

On stage next week, Ross and I will have to discuss Yahoo’s top leadership, or lack thereof, save Ross and his interim-CEO boss Tim Morse, who was Yahoo’s CFO up until the abrupt firing of Carol Bartz late this summer.

Since that time, the daily rumor mill has swirled around the company (it was only weekly before that). Today’s news, for example, was that Yahoo stock is up, because potential buyers are “circling” the Internet giant. One of those buyers is Alibaba, the Chinese giant, another is Newscorp, where Ross worked in another life. A third is private equity, which would mean Yahoo ceases to be a public company, at least for a period of time. A long shot fourth is Microsoft, but we’ll get a chance to ask Steve Ballmer about the on Day Two….

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I Just Made a City…

By - October 10, 2011

FM on the map.png

…on the Web 2 Summit “Data Frame” map. It’s kind of fun to think about your company (or any company) as a compendium of various data assets. We’ve added a “build your own city” feature to the map, and while there are a couple bugs to fix (I’d like to be able to add my own icon, for example), it’s pretty fun to do.

I built a city for Federated Media, naturally. Given our acquisitions of Lijit, Foodbuzz, TextDigger, and BigTent, as well as our organic growth, we’ve actually accumulated quite a bit of Interest, Search, Content, and Wildcard data. It’s fun to see the city take shape in real time. Give a spin for a company you like!

Help Me Interview Vic Gundotra, SVP, Google (And Win Free Tix to Web 2)

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gundotra.jpegNext up on Day 3 of Web 2 is Vic Gundotra, the man responsible for what Google CEO Larry Page calls the most exciting and important project at this company: Google+. It’s been a long, long time since I’ve heard as varied a set of responses to any Google project as I have for Google+. Traffic is up in a huge way, state many reports, then, no, it’s down as much as 60%. Google + is the best thing since the slicing of bread, Google+ is a waste of time.

I honestly don’t think the folks at Google care about week to week traffic fluctuations, or initial reviews by the blogerati. The company is in it for the long haul this time. And Google+ marks a shift in how the Google brand is expressed, what it actually means in the minds of its customers. (Here’s my post on that idea).

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