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Predictions 2012 #3: The Facebook Ad Network

By - January 04, 2012

For my third prediction of the year, I’m going with one just a tad bit less obvious than “Facebook will go public.” There seems to be no doubt about that event occurring this year, though I’ve certainly heard intelligent folks argue that Facebook can and should figure out how to stay private. I’ve argued that Facebook ought to be a public company, if only to be held (somewhat) accountable given all the data it has on our lives.

But this prediction has to do with Facebook announcing and then launching a web-wide advertising network along the lines of Google’s AdSense. I’ve talked about this for years (short handing it as “FaceSense,”) and I’ve asked Mark Zuckerberg, Carolyn Everson, Bret Taylor, and Sheryl Sandberg about it on stage and off. The answer is always the same: We’re not interested in launching a web ad network at this time.

I predict that line will change in 2012. Here’s why:

– Once public, Facebook will need to keep demonstrating new lines of revenue and growth. Sure, the company already has the attention of 1/7th of all time spent “on the web.” But there’s a lot more attention out there on the Independent Web, and the default ad service for that other 6/7ths is Google’s AdSense, a multi-billion dollar business.

– Facebook already has its hooks into millions of websites with its Open Graph suite – all those Like, Recommend, Share, Connect, and Facebook Comment plugins. These buttons are pumping data about how the web is being used directly into Facebook’s servers. That data can then be combined with all the native Social Graph data Facebook already has, making for a powerful offering to marketers across the entire web. Think of it as “social retargeting” – marketers will be able to buy attention on Facebook.com, then know where folks are across the web, and amplify their messaging out there as well.

– Because Facebook is already integrated into millions of sites, it’ll be a relative snap for the company to start signing up publishers to offer their inventory to the social giant. It will be interesting to see what terms Facebook offers/requires – I’m assuming the company will match Google and others’ non-exclusivity (IE, you can use any ad network you want), but don’t assume this will be the case. Facebook may have an ace or two up their sleeve in how they go to market here.

– Lastly, let’s not forget that the team who built and ran AdSense is now at Facebook (that’d be Sheryl Sandberg and her ad ops chief David Fischer, oh, and one of the “fathers of AdSense,” Gokul Rajaram).

Critical to the success and rollout of Facebook’s web ads will be two key factors. One, the structural underpinning of the system: AdSense scans the content of a page and delivers relevant ads (though many other factors are now creeping into its system). This leverages Google’s core competence as a search engine (it’s already scanning the page for search.) Facebook’s core leverage is knowing who you are and what you’ve done inside the Facebook ecosystem, so the key structural construct for its web ad network will turn on how the company leverages that data. I imagine the new ad network might initially roll out just to sites that have Facebook Connect installed, so that visitors to those sites are already “inside” the Facebook network, so to speak.

The second issue is what may as well be called the “creepiness factor.”  Search display retargeting is still a gray area – a lot of folks don’t like being chased across the web by ads that know what sites you’ve recently visited or what terms you’ve searched for. Cultural acceptance of ads on third party sites that seem to know who your friends are, what you ate for dinner last night, or what movies you recently watched might provoke a societal immune response. But that’s not stopped Facebook to date. I don’t expect it will in this case either.

Related:

Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

Predictions 2012: #2 – Twitter As Free Radical, Swiss Bank, Arms Merchant…And Google Five Years Ago

Predictions 2011

2011: How I Did

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

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Searchblog 2011: The Year In Writing

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I’ve done this a few times in the past, and this year I’m feeling the need to review all I wrote in 2011, and highlight the best posts (at least, by my own measure). Even though my writing in the past year withered to an average of two or three posts a week, I still managed to get some meaningful ideas out there, and I intend to redouble my efforts in 2012. Herewith, my list of favorites from the past year, in order of appearance:

Predictions 2011 The first substantive post of 2011, by my own reckoning last month, I did pretty well.

What Everyone Seems to Miss In Facebook’s Private or Public Debate… I make the point that a company with this much data should be accountable to the public.

The InterDependent Web In which I expand on my concepts of the Dependent and Independent Web.

File Under: Metaservices, The Rise Of  In this piece I outline a vision for an app world that works,well, like the web should work. One of the top tweeted stories of the year.

Google, Social, and Facebook: One Ring Does Not Rule Them All I forgot I wrote this, but given how Google subsequently dropped Twitter and forced Google+ to the top of its results, re-reading it makes me sad. I wish Google would take my advice.

Do We Trust The Government With The Internet? Surprisingly, I argue that we should.

The Rise of Digital Plumage In which I talk about my concept of instrumenting our digital identities with as much care as we instrument our physical bodies.

The Internet Interest Bubble I’ve been always in the camp of “we’re not in another bubble,” but in this piece, I argue we do have perhaps too much interest in the whole story, at least, too much interest in rather shallow parts of the story.

KSJO 92.3 – Good Product, Bad Marketing. A Case Study One of my favorite anecdotes of the year.

Pandora’s Facebook Box Musings on my desire to use some other service to rethink my Facebook profile.

A Report Card on Web 2 and the App Economy It wasn’t a good score.

Why Color Matters: Augmented Reality And Nuanced Social Graphs May Finally Come of Age Got a ton of comments, but I was wrong about Color. I stand by the principles of the post, however.

A Funny Coincidence, or a Glimpse of the Future? A coincidental glimpse of the future, alas.

Plato On Facebook Change always augurs complaint.

Set The Data Free, And Value Will Follow “Every major (and even every minor) player realizes that “data is the next Intel inside,” and has, for the most part, taken a hoarder’s approach to the stuff.”

Web 2 Map: The Data Layer – Visualizing the Big Players in the Internet Economy A reminder of how much work I did each year getting Web 2 together.

We (Will) Live In A Small Big Town In which I dream of a world where corporations are listening, but not lurking.

What We Hath Wrought: The Book It becomes real, at least, to me!

The World Is An Internet Startup Now One of the most shared pieces I wrote last year.

Time For A New Software Economy As opposed to an app economy.

Google+: If, And, Then….Implications for Twitter and Tumblr Initial reactions to the new service.

“The Information” by James Gleick I read and reviewed a fair number of books this past year, but this one stands out.

Looky Here, It’s Me, In an Ad, On Facebook! Is This Legal? Allowed? Who Knows?! Turns out, it was not allowed. But now Facebook allows it on their own ad network (more on that soon).

Twitter and the Ultimate Algorithm: Signal Over Noise (With Major Business Model Implications) Not surprisingly, one of the most tweeted stories of the year.

We Need An Identity Re-Aggregator (That We Control) This was one of my major issues of the year. It ain’t going away.

The Future of Twitter Ads I found myself writing more and more about Twitter as the year went on.

Facebook As Storyteller On Timeline and industry journalism.

Google = Google+ One of the most shared stories of the year on all counts. In which I argue that Google+ is way more than a new social network. It’s a play for the soul of Google, its brand.

I Wish “Tapestry” Existed It’s too hard to innovate in the area of metaservices for apps.

Only Connect: Facebook, From The Eyes of an Old Newbie Highly read piece on my re-entry to Facebook. I should write a followup on my experience so far.

Government By Numbers: Some Interesting Insights Tons of data on government as a percentage of GDP, etc.

Brands as Publishers One of my chestnuts.

You Are The Platform Summary of one of the most important themes to emerge from the Web 2 Summit last year.

The Problem and the Opportunity Of Mobile Advertising A story of where we are and where we might go.

The World In One Generation: Population Trends This blew up on StumbleUpon. Go figure.

“We need some angry nerds” SOPA rears its head.

The Internet Big Five Part of my book work (as are others above, come to think of it), and increasingly part of this site going forward.

On This Whole “Web Is Dead” Meme It’s not dead.

2011 Predictions: How Did I Do? Not bad.

 

Well, there ya go. A fair number of “favorite posts” for what was a pretty light year of writing. Looking forward to 2012….

Predictions 2012: #2 – Twitter As Free Radical, Swiss Bank, Arms Merchant…And Google Five Years Ago

By - January 03, 2012

My predictions this year will be pretty focused on the Internet Big Five (Google, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook) but the first two focus on Twitter. Why? Because Twitter is poised to become a critical “free radical” whose presence affects the actions of all the Big Five players. And 2012 will be the year this becomes readily apparent. In short: In 2012, every Big Five Internet company will need to have a clear Twitter strategy. At the moment, not all of them do.

What do I mean when I use the term “free radical”? Well, taken loosely from molecular chemistry and biology, free radicals are particles with open shells or unpaired electrons – they cause change in otherwise stable systems. I take the term with a bit more license, however – to me Twitter is the only Internet service at scale that has yet to ossify into a predictable platform with a massive revenue base to protect. This fact, plus the company’s liberal philosophical bent toward free speech, positions Twitter as something of a shape-shifting arms merchant in the ongoing battle between the Internet Big Five. Believe me, any one of the Five would kill to own Twitter, several of them have tried to buy the company over the past few years. It’s now clear that Twitter’s path is one of independence. To succeed, it must become the Swiss bank of social intent, providing its services in some kind of useful way to each and every one of the Big Five.

2011 has already set the table for how this year is going to play out. In short, Microsoft and Apple embraced Twitter, Google and Facebook rejected it, and Amazon stayed on the sidelines, for the most part.

Last year, Google allowed its search deal with Twitter to expire (not for lack of trying, I am sure), and then rolled out Google+, which is clearly a Twitter competitor (sure, it’s also a Facebook competitor, but let’s keep this post focused, shall we? Google+ replaced Twitter in Google’s search service. Enough said.). Microsoft, on the other hand, was happy to renew its deal. It’ll do more with Twitter in 2012, to be sure.

Last year was the year Facebook pretty much copied everything Twitter does, up to and including the “Subscribe” feature, which is pretty much a full copy of Twitter inside the Facebook walled garden. Meanwhile Apple embraced Twitter wholeheartedly, with a deal that clearly benefited from Facebook negotiations gone south. And as I said earlier, Amazon didn’t see much reason to work with Twitter, save adding a few new handles to its corporate identity.

In 2012, every Big Five player is going to have to reckon (again) with Twitter. And it’s my hope that Twitter’s approach to these Internet behemoths is to force them all to play by the same rules. In other words, no exclusive deals for any of them. If Google wants to integrate Twitter natively into Android (the way Apple has with iOS), why, great. Twitter won’t refuse to do so because Apple objects. Should Microsoft care to build Twitter natively into Xbox Live, again, no problem, but sorry Microsoft, Twitter keeps the right to allow Sony or Nintendo (or, gasp, Facebook proxy Zynga) the same option. When Amazon starts publicly acting like a full-blown media company (and not just a distribution or ecommerce player), it will cut a deal with Twitter for distribution and data, quite possibly in the advertising network space. Amazon’s competitors will have nothing to say about it. And if Facebook ever wakes up and realizes that Twitter might play a part  in its strategy in some important way, Twitter will be more than happy to figure out a deal, even if Google objects.

In short, the Internet Big Five need a neutral player they can all draw on for value and features that any one of them can’t (or won’t) do – for any number of reasons. This is the role Google played in the first five years of Web 2.o (but increasingly can’t play due to conflicts with owned and operated properties like YouTube, Android, Google+, Places, etc.). For now, Google and Facebook still think they can out-Twitter Twitter. Microsoft and Apple have already punted on competing directly. I’m predicting 2012 is the year Google and Facebook come around and work with Twitter in some new, significant way, as will Amazon.

This is a pretty risky prediction to make, to be sure. Sitting here in January of 2012, it’s quite easy to argue that the folks at Facebook and Google see absolutely no reason to work with Twitter. But there’s an important reason to work with Twitter that hasn’t become quite evident, yet. And that has to do with the concept of openness and the need for third party validation in the eyes of government and consumer scrutiny. More on that in a future prediction.

Related:

Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

Predictions 2011

2011: How I Did

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

By -

2012 is going to be a year of contrasts – of consolidation of power for the Internet Big Five, and fragmentation and disruption of that power due to both startups as well as government and consumer action. I’ve spent the past few weeks jotting down thoughts for 2012, and hope to do the Year That Is About To Be justice in the following set of posts.

Yes, I said “set of posts,” because for the first time since the birth of this blog (that’d be nine years ago), I’m going to post my predictions one by one. Why? Well, because I’d like to dig in a bit on each. If I do it all in one post, we’d have a *very* long read, and most of you are just too busy for that. I don’t plan to release these posts slowly, I’m just going to write till I’m done, so ideally I’ll be done in a few days. And when I’ve finished, I’ll post a summary of them all, for those of you who want all these predictions in one easily linkable place.

So let’s start with Prediction #1: Twitter will become a media company, and the only “free radical of scale” in our Internet ecosystem. 

Let me break this into two parts. First, the media company angle. We’ve seen this movie over and over again, with Google and Facebook the most notable “new media companies” of the past decade (and Microsoft the most reluctant). Most engineering-driven Valley companies resist the mantle of “media company,” though Facebook seems to be adapting rapidly to that fact. Its key executives make a point of declaring themselves in the business of selling advertising, and if the new Timeline feature isn’t a play to create the world’s biggest media company at scale, then either A/I’m crazy or B/no one else is paying attention. I doubt the latter is true. The former, well…

Now, Twitter is an engineering-driven company, but its future rests in its ability to harness the attention of its consumers, then resell that attention to marketers. If that sounds crass, I don’t mean it to be. Twitter has a chance to do what Google did – at least initially – provide a platform for advertising that actually adds value to the ecosystem in which it lives. Twitter’s initial platform for ads is pointed generally in that direction – Promoted Tweets only get “resonance” if people engage with them, for example. But it’s about to get more complicated.

Here’s why. When Twitter rolled out its mostly-lauded new design late last year, it added a new section to all of our accounts. Can’t remember what it’s called? You’re probably not alone. Twitter’s new “#Discover” section reputedly addresses what I’ve called the service’s greatest problem and opportunity: How to filter all that Twitter noise into a signal that adds unique value to each individual account.

If Twitter gets #Discover right, it’s created an extraordinary media consumption machine. But so far, #Discover ain’t there yet.

You know what is close to there, when it comes to creating a new kind of media consumption service? Flipboard. And that might make for a few uncomfortable board meetings over at Twitter HP, because Flipboard CEO Mike McCue sits on Twitter’s board. Inevitably, Twitter’s #Discover needs to beat Flipboard at its own game. In the end, Twitter may have to buy McCue’s company (or Mike may have to recuse himself from an awful lot of meetings).

And that’s not the only thing that’s “complicated” about getting #Discover right. As Flipboard has already figured out, once you curate copyrighted material at scale, and then want to sell ads against your curation, things get tricky. This is why Flipboard has spent so much time negotiating rights deals with major publishers.   And this will become a major part of Twitter’s work in 2012; work that, to my point, is the work of a media company.

Once Twitter fixes its #Discover problem, an entirely new front opens up for the company in terms of advertising. I find consuming Twitter on Flipboard eerily similar to reading a good magazine, and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. And good magazines already have a good advertising model called the full-page ad (and the two-page spread). I predict that Twitter’s rise as a media company (along with the success of Flipboard and various at-scale “magazine-like” apps like Wired and The Daily) will augur a new ad unit we can either swipe past, or engage with. New formats like these need a scale player to really drive them into the minds of ad buyers, and Twitter will be that driver (yes, there’s Zite, and Livestand,  Google’s supposedly upcoming Propeller, and and and…but.) This ad format will be a huge hit with marketers, and the subject of many fawning industry press mentions.

My second post will expand on the latter part of my first prediction: Twitter as the only “free radical at scale.” Watch for that later today. And Happy 2012!

Related:

Predictions 2011

2011: How I Did

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

Happy 2012!

By - December 31, 2011

I’ve been quiet on Searchblog for most of the holidays, but I don’t expect that to continue in 2012. This will be the year of focusing on just two things: Federated Media, and The Book. Both will drive a lot of thinking, writing, and dialog on this site.

I’ve been on vacation these past few days and it’s given me a fair amount of time to reflect on the past year, as well as on what’s to come for 2012. Expect my annual predictions post in the next few days. Meanwhile, have a great New Year’s Eve, and here’s to a great year ahead.

2011 Predictions: How Did I Do?

By - December 19, 2011

(image) For many years now I’ve made predictions, and for just as many years I review how I did. This is the week I do the reviewing, my predictions for 2012 should arrive around the New Year, assuming I find the right inspiration.

2011 was a strange year in many ways. We lost Steve Jobs, stupid Internet legislation reared its ugly head yet again in the form of SOPA, Internet IPOs came back in a big way (but didn’t perform as well as most would have liked), and the world woke up to the implications of programmatic buying and Big Data, in a Very Big Way.

As I look back on my predictions of twelve months ago, I think I did a pretty good job, but left plenty of room for improvement. Here’s a rundown of how I did, with some supporting citations, where appropriate:

Prediction #1: We’ll see the rise of a meme which I’ll call “The Web Reborn.” 

If you read this site closely, you’ll have noticed that I’m a bit up in arms about the impact this whole “AppWorld” phenomenon is having on the “real web.” AppWorld is not the Web, in fact, it’s utterly un-weblike. I’ve written about this all year long, too mostly little effect in the larger world. But just recently a meme has risen, in fact, that sounds an awful lot like what I predicted. To wit:

Dave Winer: Why apps are not the future and Enough with the apps already

Doc Searls: Broadband vs. Internet

Jonathan Zittrain: The PC is dead. Why no angry nerds?

Scott Hanselman: Apps are too much like 1990’s CD-ROMs and not enough like the Web

And of course, my latest: On This Whole “Web Is Dead” Meme

Score: I think I called this right. There is a robust movement toward saving the core principles that made the web what it is. But it’s at the early stages at this point. Score: 7 of 10. 

Prediction #2: Voice will become a critical interface for computing (especially mobile apps). 

Hello, Siri…I’d say this one happened, with bells on. And it’s just the beginning. Score this a 9 out of 10 (because Siri, while very important, is still not as good as it can be. Then again, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all made voice moves this year as well).

Prediction 3: DSPs (Demand Side Platforms) will fade into the fabric of larger marketing platforms. 

This one is hard to quantify, it’s more of a feeling – DSPs were the Big Scary Development in the ad industry a year ago, and now…not so much. They are just part of the world we live in, and programmatic buying is a fact of life, one that is growing very, very quickly. Publishers have responded with their own adtech (FM purchased Lijit, for example, Google bought AdMeld), and on we go. I think I got this right, in the main.

Score: 8 of 10.

Prediction 4: MediaBank will emerge as a major independent player in the marketing world, playing off its cross channel reach (outside of digital) and providing an alternative to the conflicted digital platforms at Facebook, Microsoft, Google, and Yahoo.

Well, MediaBank merged with its main competitor, DDS, to form MediaOcean, run by the CEO of MediaBank. And the combined company is a behemoth, one capable of standing toe to toe with Google on several fronts. I think this one absolutely happened.

Score: 10 of 10.

Prediction 5: The Mac App Store will be a big hit, at least among Mac users, and may well propel Mac sales beyond expectations.

I’m not quite sure how to score this one. I don’t get the sense the Mac App Store was a big buzzy hit, but Apple recently released numbers about its success – 100 million downloads in the first six months of its existence (the last six months of this year).

And the company’s Mac sales are for sure on a roll, though I don’t know if one can attribute this to the Mac App Store. In short, it might be too early to call this one definitively, but net net, the trending is good.

Score: 7 out of 10.

Prediction 6: Apple will attempt to get better at social networking, fail, and cut a deal with Facebook.

Oh boy, I got this so tantalizingly right, or wrong…depending on how you score it. Let’s break it down. “Apple will attempt to get better at social networking…” Check – Apple introduced Ping late in 2010 and then updated it throughout the year.  “…fail…” Check. Ping never really took off. “…and cut a deal with Facebook.” DOOOOH. No way. If only I had said “…and cut a deal with Twitter….” I should have seen that Apple would never play nice with Facebook, if only due to the conflict around owning the business of media consumption. It sure did try, but negotiations broke down, according to most reports.

Score: 6 of 10.

Prediction 7: Apple will begin to show signs of the same problems that plagued Microsoft in the mid 90s, and Google in the past few years: Getting too big, too full of themselves, and too focused on their own prior success.

Now showing this prediction came true won’t be easy, but let’s take a few stories throughout the year as proof points. First, most of the “Web reborn” backlash (#1 above) is a response to Apple’s restrictive iOS. Then there’s the FT’s unqualified success in routing around Apple (see PC’s coverage), which nearly every major media and entertainment company is watching very closely. And there are plenty of rumblings (though not nearly as many as with Facebook, see #13):

IDC offers scathing prediction of certain death for Apple’s iAd program

Apple Made A Deal With The Devil (No, Worse: A Patent Troll)

Apple arrogance exposed by iPad undesign

All in all, I probably didn’t nail this one. But I’m not going to say it isn’t starting to happen. Score: 5 of 10.

Prediction 8: Microsoft will have a major change in leadership. I am not predicting Ballmer will leave, but I think he and the company will most likely bring in very senior new talent to open new markets or shift direction in important current markets.

Well, thanks to the Andy Lees move last week, I look like a genius. Also, long time Microsoft exec Yusuf Medhi, responsible for the most important piece of Microsoft’s new business (Bing), has been moved to its next possibly most important line of business, Xbox. Not to mention Ballmer’s various shakeups of senior management this year. Plus, rumblings continue about whether Ballmer is the right man for the job – to the point of some wags speculating that Gates might come back. As if. Score: 9 of 10. 

Prediction 9: The public markets will be surprisingly open to major new Internet deals.

Well, I could argue this is utterly true. After all, compared to 2010, there was a raft of Internet deals that got out this year – Demand, LinkedIn, Zillow, Angie’s List, Pandora, Zynga – with many more filings pending public debut. But none of them did very well – most if not all are trading below offering price. So the market let them get out, but isn’t trading them up. So was the market “open”? Yes. Was it enthusiastic after open? No.

Score: 7 of 10.

Prediction 10: The tablet market will have a year of incoherence. Apple will dominate with the iPad due to a lack of an alternative touchstone.

Well, that was way too easy. Exactly what happened – HP tried, failed. RIM tried, failed. Amazon is trying, and the early reviews ain’t great. We’ll see. Score: 10 of 10. 

Prediction 11: “Social deals” will morph to become a standard marketing outlet for all business, and by year’s end be seen as a standard part of any marketer’s media mix.

I think this has happened – nearly every small business has now heard of daily deals, and most forward leaning companies both large and small are using deals as a channel like any other (search, Yellow Pages, etc.). Don’t forget that a year ago, when I wrote this prediction, folks were talking about the deal market as something totally unique, like DSPs.

Related, in this prediction I also wrote “I’m tempted to say Facebook will abandon its own Deals offering for a deal with Groupon, but I’m not sure that will unfold in one year.” Facebook did indeed bail on its Deals offering, but did not cut a deal with Groupon. (Foursquare did).

Score: 9 of 10. 

Prediction 12: Groupon will fend off an acquisition by a major carrier, probably AT&T or Verizon. It’s possible they’ll sell, but I doubt it.

Google tried to buy Groupon around the time I made this prediction, but failed. I am unaware of any other suitors for the company on its way to its IPO, but I’m not privy to what might have happened. Nothing was publicly reported, however, so I’ll have to say I whiffed this one.

Score: 0 of 10.

Prediction 13: Facebook will decline as a force in the Internet world, as measured by buzz. The company will continue to be seen as Big Brother in the press, and struggle with internal issues related to growth. Also, it will lose some attention/share to upstarts. However, its share of marketing dollars and reach will increase.

OK, I think I got this one right, but one can argue, as always. Here are a litany of headlines over the year:

Amid backlash, Facebook tries to save face (Cnet)

Facebook as the New AOL (RWW)

Facebook Is AOLifying the Internet—and That Sucks (Gizmodo)

Facebook is gaslighting the web. We can fix it. (Anil Dash)

How Facebook is Killing Your Authenticity (Steve Cheney)

It’s time for a Facebook intervention (TNW)

President Obama Doesn’t Let His Daughters Use Facebook (HP)

The Decline and Fall of Facebook (Cringely)

I could find more, but I think you get a picture here of a broad swath of “buzz makers” questioning the company. Meanwhile, according to all reports, the company is killing it in revenue.

Score: 8 of 10. 

Prediction 14: We’ll see major privacy related legislation in the US brought to the floor of Congress, and then fail for lack of consensus. But that will drive a significant shift in how our culture understands its relationship to the world our industry is building, and that’s a good thing.

Well, we had quite a number of these bills brought to Congress in one way or another. I probably should not have used the words “to the floor,” as that implies open debate. Nearly everyone in Congress and the Executive branch talks about some kind of privacy legislation, but no one can seem to agree what that means.

As of late Fall, seven different legislators have introduced bills. But as far as I can tell, none have really gotten anywhere. However, the conversation around the issues has accelerated significantly, as predicted.

Score: 9 of 10. 

In summary, I think my predictions fared pretty well. If you take a score of 7 or more as a “hit,” 4-6 as a “foul ball,” and below 4 as a “strikeout,” I hit 10 of 14, fouled off 3 of 14, and whiffed massively just once.

So, how do you think I did?!

Related:

Predictions 2011

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

TextPlus Adds Free Calling – Watch This Space

By - December 13, 2011

A couple of weeks ago I met with the CEO of TextPlus, and wrote up my experience here. I mentioned he has some news coming, and this is it: TextPlus, which is a popular free text messaging service, is launching free calling between TextPlus members today. Calling to regular lines is pretty cheap to boot (like 99 cents for 40 minutes).

Why am I writing this up? Because it makes me wonder….TextPlus is a fast growing service that is leveraged over the Apple iOS world I call AppWorld. It serves at the whim of a gatekeeper, in this case, Apple (you can also get it for Android, which is growing faster). Apple, in turn, must keep its carriers happy by selling tons of iPhones (and iPads) with plans that lock customers into paying a pretty penny for data and voice connectivity. And I am not sure those carriers are happy with the idea of a fast growing app that helps teenagers (TextPlus’ main constituency) bypass those profitable service plans. It’s like a built in way to teach the next generation of customers how to cut the cord.

Sure, there’s always Skype and Google Hangouts and such, so perhaps this isn’t such a big deal. But then again, maybe it is. With Wifi coverage growing quickly these days, TextPlus – perhaps the name now should be CommPlus – is one to watch, IMHO.

On This Whole “Web Is Dead” Meme

By - December 12, 2011

The Web is dead again, at least, according to a widely covered speech by Forrester Research’s George Colony.

Speaking at Le Web last week, Colony claimed that the HTML web is a poorly architected half step in the next, obvious progression of platforms: a hybrid between what we’ve come to know as the Web and the crippled chicletized place I’ve been calling AppWorld. In a stroke of nomenclature insight, Colony calls this new platform the App-Internet.

Colony argues that, unlike apps, the Web doesn’t leverage the processing and storage power of edge devices (like the iPad or a smartphone, for example. Or, say, an old school computer, like the one I’m using right now to write this post.)

In theory, I agree with Colony, but I’m not sure the real issues are elucidated in his speech, or in much of the coverage of it. If the next version of the “Web” loses that which makes the web special, it won’t be the web anymore. That’s when, for me anyway, the “web will be dead.” If the web keeps its core principles, well, then, we’ll keep calling it the web, I’d wager, even if it ends up looking like the “app-internet.”

Let me explain, if I can. I feel like I’ve written this many times before, but perhaps not so directly as now. What makes the web special is not the language(s) in which it is written  (HTML, javascript, and so on). To me, what makes the web special are the underlying assumptions about how it works. In no particular order, they include:

– No gatekeepers. The web is decentralized. Anyone can start a web site. No one has the authority (in a democracy, anyway) to stop you from putting up a shingle. Of course, we live in a society of law, so if that new site breaks a law, well, you might have to take that shingle down. That’s OK with me.

– An ethos of the commons. The web developed over time under an ethos of community development, and most of its core software and protocols are royalty free or open source (or both). There wasn’t early lockdown on what was and wasn’t allowed. This created chaos, shady operators, and plenty of dirt and dark alleys. But it also allowed extraordinary value to blossom in that roiling ecosystem. Over time, the good actors have come to agree on best practices which have allowed an extraordinary new resource to thrive. These practices include privacy policies, data use policies, and even some reasonable law (we’re still working out a lot of the law part, but it’s happening slowly and with consideration, as I believe it should). In short, we’re taking the time to codify the rules of the road on the web. We’ve not pushed it into early lockdown in terms of policy. The same is absolutely not true of AppWorld.

– No preset rules about how data is used. If one site collects information from or about a user of its site, that site has the right to do other things with that data, assuming, again, that it’s doing things that benefit all parties concerned. If it does stupid things, that site will be called out, and folks won’t visit it anymore. Yes, some people may get burned, but on balance, we’ve decided that it’s better to allow sites and their customers to determine the best use of data, rather than pre-determine data policy to the point where innovation is stifled. This is something of a corollary to my point above, but it bears explanation. Here’s one small example: When I watch a movie on Netflix using its website, Netflix stores information about how I watch that movie. If I stop watching and leave the site, Netflix remembers where I stopped, and gives me the option to resume the next time I go to the site. And if I fire up my iPad and launch the Netflix app, it also remembers where I was – because you can import data from the web into Apple’s AppWorld. But if I start watching a movie in AppWorld, then go to the open web to continue watching it, I can’t resume the movie. Netflix doesn’t remember what I’ve done on its iOS app. Why? Because in AppWorld, data can come in, but it can’t go out. This stifles innovation in so many ways I’m going to have to write another post to explain it.

– Neutrality. No one site on the web is any more or less accessible than any other site. If it’s on the web, you can find it and visit it. This is a corollary of “no gatekeepers,” but again, it bears elucidation. In current versions of AppWorld, finding anything is a challenge, and the winners are almost always those who get special treatment in a gatekeeper’s storefront.

– Interoperability. Sites on the web share common protocols and principles, and determine independently how to work with each other. There is no centralized authority which decides who can work with who, in what way. In AppWorld, the apps don’t talk to each other, and from what I can tell, you need permission from the gatekeeper if you’re going to work around that fact. Again, this stifles true innovation. Imagine if Google needed permission from some overlord to crawl the web back in 1998. It would never have gotten off the ground, and the second great Web boom may never have happened.

I’m sure I’ve missed a few key points, but I think you get the picture. If Colony’s “app-internet” sheds the crappy parts of AppWorld, and keeps the best parts of our current Web, I’m all for it. But if the reverse happens, I’m all in – against it. Long live the web!

Neal Stephenson on Important Work

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(image) An interesting interview in the NYT  I missed from last week, with noted author Neal Stephenson. In it, he riffs on something that’s been bugging me as I work on the book. Asked about “the future of computing,” he responds:

“I’ll tell you what I’d like to see happen,” he said, and began discussing what the future was supposed to have looked like, back in his 1960s childhood. He ticked off the tropes of what he called “techno-optimistic science fiction,” including flying cars and jetpacks. And then computers went from being things that filled a room to things that could fit on a desk, and the economy and industries changed. “The kinds of super-bright, hardworking geeky people who, 50 years ago, would have been building moon rockets or hydrogen bombs or what have you have ended up working in the computer industry, doing jobs that in many cases seem kind of ignominious by comparison.”

Again, a beat. A consideration, perhaps, that he is talking about the core readership for his best sellers. No matter. He’s rolling. He presses on.

“What I’m kind of hoping is that this is just kind of a pause, while we assimilate this gigantic new thing, ubiquitous computing and the Internet. And that at some point we’ll turn around and say, ‘Well, that was interesting — we have a whole set of new tools and capabilities that we didn’t have before the whole computer/Internet thing came along.’ ”

He said people should say, “Now let’s get back to work doing interesting and useful things.”

I know that many of us in the Internet industry believe we are working on things that are changing the world. But it’s worth asking ourselves if honestly that’s true. We’ve got some really big problems to attack, and we need the best minds of our generation on them.

Stephenson’s thoughts are elucidated in more detail in a piece he wrote for World Policy here.