Updated: On FareCast: Rip Me Off No More

Second Update: Hugh has given us unlimited invites (thanks Hugh!) and a process for making this easy. I'll have this done asap. Most likely you are painfully aware of how bizarre and seemingly inscrutable the pricing schemes are for airline travel. One day you might get a fare from…

Farecast Logo

Second Update: Hugh has given us unlimited invites (thanks Hugh!) and a process for making this easy. I’ll have this done asap.

Most likely you are painfully aware of how bizarre and seemingly inscrutable the pricing schemes are for airline travel. One day you might get a fare from SF to Boston for $400, the next it’s $335, and the day after that it’s $500. Why? Well, airlines have shitloads of data about historical pricing; they understand the supply and demand curves for every market, and they know when they need to sell more seats, boost margins, or compete to win business. They take advantage of all that data to push a price at you that suits them, and they’re very, very good at leveraging algorithms to drive maximum revenue. It’s frustrating as hell to use an online service like Expedia to try to beat the airlines at their own game – it simply isn’t the right interface. Not to mention, Expedia’s real customers are the travel companies – not you.

I got a chance to talk to Farecast founder Hugh Crean earlier last week, right before I penned this missive on not being able to do reviews. And in fact, this is not a review of Farecast, as much as I wish I had time for that. However, Hugh did spend a few minutes showing me around the site, and I found what it does really interesting, though for different reasons that perhaps others might.

Farecast1

You can sign up for the private beta on the homepage, it’ll be out later in the year. The basic premise is neat – Farecast pays attention to the market price of all airline fares out of particular cities (it only does Boston and Seattle for now) at all times (it uses an industry data feed that, unfortunately, does not include Southwest). It then uses this data to help forecast when the right time might be for you to buy your ticket (and get the best price). In short, it’s a rip off detector for flights. Farecast leverages the power of data to put you back in charge, or at least more in charge.

What Farecast does is shift the power of information back into the consumer’s hands, and that’s why I like it. I remember when the web was young and the first car buying sites were up and running. Dealers scrambled for that early business, and I bought two cars off the web by forcing dealers in the Bay Area to compete for my business. It really felt like the web was going to change the dynamic of who was in charge in a car buying transaction – because I could force dealers to their best price, I was always going to get the best price. It felt like this would be the model in most large transactions, like travel, loans, etc. Price would stabilize, and folks would differentiate on service, relationship, and approach.

But something funny happened on our way to internet mediated bliss: the big companies figured out how to game our demand. Dealers realized they can make more profit if they cooperate and withhold pricing information from the aggregators, and the aggregators got into bed with the supply side of the equation (if you think AutoByTel or Expedia is on your side, you’re kidding yourself). Nowhere is this more true that in how an airline prices its tickets.

I like how Farecast puts the consumer back in control of the data. The interface is very slick and the idea is quite promising. So I very much wish Farecast well, and I’d love to hear about other services which disrupt other markets where access to data is so one sided.

Hugh has given me 25 invitations to the private beta, if you’re interested, let me know in comments below.

Update: Hugh has emailed me and upped my invite limit to 150. But give me some time to get them out to you….

434 thoughts on “Updated: On FareCast: Rip Me Off No More”

  1. Farecast is a great concept. We at TripHub recently sponsored an event in Seattle with TechCrunch.

    After using Farecast to predict the best times to fly based on airfare, you can plan any type of group trip using the free collaborative tools built by TripHub.com.

    And if you book your flight on another site, you can simply communicate the flight into on one central “trip home” page for family reunions, weekend getaways with friends and the like.

    Jocelyn,
    TripHub’s blog editor – http://advisor.triphub.com

    Reply

  3. what a fantastic idea!
    i’d think it would make a great macintosh dashboard widget, too.

    put me on the list if you have a slot

    Reply

  5. Hi I’d like an invite please. I fly out of Seattle a lot and into Boston a few times a year. This would be super useful.

    Thanks
    Ritta

    Reply

  8. As a student of economics, I find this fascinating. Could I have an invite?? Pwease??? Pretty please with sugar on top?

    Reply

  11. I work for a very large travel company, one that is on the intertron, one which was originally a team at another very VERY large software company. I’m not sure it makes a difference to the point made in this write up, but it is an interesting factoid regardless.

    All travel companies get the same price on airline flights. We all turn around and charge our customers that one same price for that ticket. Our profit is a flat $5 per seat. Simple as that. Our goal is to move as many seats as possible to take that $5 “commision” and turn it in to a profit.

    There are exceptions of course. Orbitz is owned by several airlines, and you will usually get the absolute best flight deal right from them as they control their own pricing differently at that site.

    I do agree though, this tool looks like it will go a long way to change the structure of consumer travel. While it probably can not be predicted as to the effectiveness of this particular site, it will no doubt spawn competition. Competition, as we know, can effect rediculously radical changes in a given industry.

    Reply

  12. Not sure if you’ve hit 150, but…I need to book a few flights out of Seattle for later in the year, and would love to check out Farecast before I do! Thanks.

    Reply

  13. If the invite requests here are any indication, this thing will be huge when it goes public. I wonder how the airlines and other price-manipulating powers-that-be will respond?

    Oh, and can I get an invite too, please? Many thanks.

    Reply

  17. Hi John,

    This is a great tool! I am in Seattle and will definately be flying this summer. I would sure appreciate an invite if you have any remaining!

    Reply

  24. As a part time statistics nerd, I would love to see how a site like this would work. An invite would be greatly appreciated!

    Reply

  32. Would very much appreciate an invite, if I’m still w/in the 150 available! Many thanks – Jessica

    Reply

  35. My sister from New Hampshire sent me this site and I would really like to be invited in. I do as much travel as my purse will allow and this would help out, for sure.

    Kathy

    Reply

  42. Would be greatly interested in an invitation. Fly out of BOS all that time and this would be truly useful. Thanks so much!

    Tamara Golden
    Somerville, MA

    Reply

  49. If you have any invitations left (you got a great response here!), please send one my way. Thanks.

    Reply

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