Prediction Markets at Google

Fascinating. The set up: At Google, employees are encouraged to go online and place bets on a prediction market — an exchange that tries to forecast events based on the money wagered on a particular outcome. Prediction markets have been used for years to predict things like elections. At…

Fascinating. The set up:

At Google, employees are encouraged to go online and place bets on a prediction market — an exchange that tries to forecast events based on the money wagered on a particular outcome.

Prediction markets have been used for years to predict things like elections. At Google, they are used, of course, for business. In the last two and a half years, 1,463 employees have made wagers with play money (Goobles, as in rubles) on questions like: will Google open a Russia office? will Apple release an Intel-based Mac? how many users will Gmail have at the end of the quarter?

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Wikia Search

The Times' piece on the launch is up. “We want to make it really clear that when people arrive and do searches, they should not expect to find a Google killer,” Mr. Wales said. Instead, people who use the Wikia search engine should understand that they are part of…

The Times’ piece on the launch is up.

“We want to make it really clear that when people arrive and do searches, they should not expect to find a Google killer,” Mr. Wales said. Instead, people who use the Wikia search engine should understand that they are part of the early stages of a project to build a “Google-quality search engine,” Mr. Wales said.

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The New Yorker on Google’s Ambitions, Policy Issues, Etc.

Far ranging piece, still reading it, by Ken Auletta, who I spoke to for the piece….

Far ranging piece, still reading it, by Ken Auletta, who I spoke to for the piece.

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The Ouroborosphere On Speed

A fascinating movie comprised of 50 hours of the Techmeme homepage condensed to 50 seconds, from Amit. You can't help but wonder what might be learned from the patterns unfolding in front of you, I want to see more!…

TechmemeA fascinating movie comprised of 50 hours of the Techmeme homepage condensed to 50 seconds, from Amit. You can’t help but wonder what might be learned from the patterns unfolding in front of you, I want to see more!

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It’s Time For Services on The Web to Compete On More Than Data

The recent kerscobuffle around data portability got me thinking out loud about what the value of a social network really is – and by extension, any service that might claim to have "lock in" around our personal data. For years now, a core (unresolved) issue in the Web 2…

The recent kerscobuffle around data portability got me thinking out loud about what the value of a social network really is – and by extension, any service that might claim to have “lock in” around our personal data.

For years now, a core (unresolved) issue in the Web 2 world has been data portability – with most of us – including me – arguing vaguely for the right to take our data where we want, when we want, without undue interference from the service that helped us aggregate it.

As the debate deepens, it seems there are two camps – first, the camp that says Facebook has either A. a right and/or B. an economic necessity to create a walled garden for our data. The second camp argues that Facebook – and any other walled garden – is A. Stupid or B. Greedy or C. Both.

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Another (Three) Googlers Graduate

I get the sense that Google is, in many respects, a really really great Grad School that folks leave – after four or five years of hard work – with a degree in well heeled "Now What?"? Latest good guy to leave: Nat Stoll. Best of luck in the…

I get the sense that Google is, in many respects, a really really great Grad School that folks leave – after four or five years of hard work – with a degree in well heeled “Now What?”? Latest good guy to leave: Nat Stoll. Best of luck in the new venture, man!

This decision has been quite difficult but ends with positive feelings. I’ve felt in the past months as if I was breaking up with Google, and I don’t think that to be a stretched analogue. I have countless close friends who I’ve been through the eye of the storm with to see clear sky, and we have history that is hard to think past. So, for all of my friends still in the ‘plex, know that “it’s not you (Google), it’s me,” and I hope that we can still stay close after we take some time apart.

Update: Kevin Fox is leaving too.

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The “VRI”: Doc Wonders If Technology Can Help Us Talk With Companies

Doc notes my post on conversations and asks why we, as consumers, are not more empowered to control our conversations/interactions with businesses who have tons of information about us and our use of their products/services. I think what we need is something like an API. Let’s call it an…

Doc notes my post on conversations and asks why we, as consumers, are not more empowered to control our conversations/interactions with businesses who have tons of information about us and our use of their products/services.

I think what we need is something like an API. Let’s call it an VRI: Vendor Relationship Interface. Through it I could know, and see, what I’m getting from each vendor with which I “relate”. On top of that the dashboard could be built.

An interesting thing here is that I really don’t want to have a conversation of the literal kind with most of these companies, unless there’s a problem. I do want to relate with them, however. That is, I would like to request or arrange for services, pay bills and occasionally make suggestions or provide feedback. Most of that does not require wasting the time of another human being. A lot of that could be automated.

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Deal with Data Portability, Facebook

It's just that simple. Deal with it. And I think FB will. I have seen commentary on Digg and elsewhere to this end: Facebook won't join Open Social, and you can forget about the pipe dreams of the Data Portability movement. The simple fact is, as the market leader,…

It’s just that simple. Deal with it.



And I think FB will. I have seen commentary on Digg and elsewhere to this end:

Facebook won’t join Open Social, and you can forget about the pipe dreams of the Data Portability movement. The simple fact is, as the market leader, there is no benefit for or strategic advantage in Facebook making your data available to you in any format you wish.



I disagree. I think FB will open up. It’s in their best interest.

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