Facebook: $6 Billion? Nah.

Look. If you're Facebook, why on earth would you sell to Microsoft for $6 billion if you didn't sell to Yahoo for $1 Billion last year? You just wouldn't. You don't NEED anyone right now. Do you? Mark and his senior team has probably already been "de-risked" by the…

200Px-Zuckerberg CroppedLook. If you’re Facebook, why on earth would you sell to Microsoft for $6 billion if you didn’t sell to Yahoo for $1 Billion last year? You just wouldn’t. You don’t NEED anyone right now. Do you? Mark and his senior team has probably already been “de-risked” by the last round of investment, meaning they’ve taken money off the table and are not lured by possible riches (this is pure speculation, mind you, not personal knowledge). It must drive everyone who is trying to buy them crazy.

Facebook has a tiger by the tail. Today I turned down a chance to discuss “if Facebook is the next Google” on CNBC. It’s the current fascination. Why Facebook, why now, when there are dozens of other social networks out there? I’ve heard valuations for the company that put it at past $12 billion. On $30 million in estimated earnings this year.

Wow. Get me that multiple, please! Even $6 billion is what – 200 times earnings?

It got me thinking. After all, in 2002, tons of folks were asking the same question. Why Google, why now, when there were dozens of other search engines out there?

Last time, there was an easy answer: PageRank.

Is there an easy answer this time?

I don’t see one. Do you?

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