Yes, I'm at it again, but this year I promise to be a bit more pared down, a bit more to the point. I had nearly 20 predictions last year, I'm hoping that by the time I lift my fingers from the keyboard I'll have a few less. So…
Yes, I’m at it again, but this year I promise to be a bit more pared down, a bit more to the point. I had nearly 20 predictions last year, I’m hoping that by the time I lift my fingers from the keyboard I’ll have a few less. So Happy New Year, and to business:
1. Thanks to Google’s dominance in search and media and a complacent DOJ, Microsoft will buy a better position in online media. Acknowledging that it can’t build it, Microsoft will shop its way into a dominant position. AOL, Yahoo, or IAC will be leading candidates for acquisition. Microsoft will name a strong second in command to Steve Ballmer who will run their entire media division after this acquisition. If that person is not Steve Berkowitz, he will leave.
1. (a) If Microsoft does not buy AOL, Yahoo will, and failing that, AOL will go public, but the IPO will receive a lukewarm review.
2. A major media outlet will predict that the “Web 2.0” bubble has burst or deflated seriously. The prediction will be wrong. I’ve been seeing more and more respected voices out there claiming we’re in a bubble of some sort or another when it comes to “Web 2.0.” I predicted that the meme will have played out in 2006, and I think I was right, but the underlying foundational strength of what created that meme is far too strong to be a bubble or played out.
Read More