Twitter’s Great Big Problem Is Its Massive Opportunity

One of the many reasons I find Twitter fascinating is that the company seems endlessly at an inflection point. Eighteen months ago I was tracking its inflection point in usage (holy shit, look how it's growing! Then, holy shit, has it stopped?!), then its inflection in business model (hey,…

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One of the many reasons I find Twitter fascinating is that the company seems endlessly at an inflection point. Eighteen months ago I was tracking its inflection point in usage (holy shit, look how it’s growing! Then, holy shit, has it stopped?!), then its inflection in business model (hey, it doesn’t have one! Wait, yes it does, but can it scale?!), and more recently, its inflection point in terms of employees (as in growing from 80+ staff to 350+ in one year – necessitating a shift in management structure….).

Twitter now faces yet another inflection point – one I’ve been tracking for some time, and one that seems to be coming to a head. To me, that inflection has to do with usefulness – can the service corral all the goodness that exists in its network and figure out a way to make it useful to its hundreds of millions of users?

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Groupon: That’s More Like It

ATD is reporting that Google is offering well more than twice what had been previously offered – $6 billion, instead of $2.5 billion. That sounds more like it. As I wrote yesterday, $2.5 billion sounded very low for this particular asset. (And this from the guy who thought YouTube…

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ATD is reporting that Google is offering well more than twice what had been previously offered – $6 billion, instead of $2.5 billion. That sounds more like it. As I wrote yesterday, $2.5 billion sounded very low for this particular asset. (And this from the guy who thought YouTube was overpriced.)

Clearly, that leak to Vator.tv last weekend was timed to push a deal point, I’m guessing.

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Groupon Is Worth More Than $2.5 Billion

Today's big rumor, so far at least, is that Google may be buying Groupon for a reported $2.5 billion. This sale has been rumored for some time, but the figure – and story – is based on a rather thin piece by VatorNews which broke early this morning. The…

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Today’s big rumor, so far at least, is that Google may be buying Groupon for a reported $2.5 billion. This sale has been rumored for some time, but the figure – and story – is based on a rather thin piece by VatorNews which broke early this morning. The headline is honest in its lack of, er, definitiveness – Google buys Groupon for $2.5 billion?   – but it does claim one “reliable source.”

Whether or not this story plays out, my first thought was that the company is worth far more than $2.5 billion. If, as many have reported, Groupon is doing $50mm in revenue a month, that’s a mere 4.2x multiple on current run rate. Given the insanely strategic nature of the purchase to not only Google, but just about every other major player in the game (Microsoft, Yahoo, eBay, Amazon, hell, American Express if they wanted to play, not to mention Facebook), I’d be utterly stunned if Google won the company for that price. Location is a key signal connecting commerce, search, social, and small business. It’s a big, big deal, and Groupon is the leader in the space.

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Not Proof, but Another Lead: WikiLeaks’ Latest Includes Google/China Tip

According the the NYT's coverage of today's WikiLeaks trove (only a small percentage have been released publicly, the rest have been reviewed by the Times): China’s Politburo directed the intrusion into Google’s computer systems in that country, a Chinese contact told the American Embassy in Beijing in January, one cable…

Screen shot 2010-03-24 at 9.33.21 AM.pngAccording the the NYT’s coverage of today’s WikiLeaks trove (only a small percentage have been released publicly, the rest have been reviewed by the Times):

China’s Politburo directed the intrusion into Google’s computer systems in that country, a Chinese contact told the American Embassy in Beijing in January, one cable reported. The Google hacking was part of a coordinated campaign of computer sabotage carried out by government operatives, private security experts and Internet outlaws recruited by the Chinese government. They have broken into American government computers and those of Western allies, the Dalai Lama and American businesses since 2002, cables said.

However, there is nothing in this reporting that justifies how TechCrunch headlined its coverage:

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The Final Web 2 Conversation: Evan Williams

Ev recently turned over CEO duties to Dick Costolo, but it's clear he's still very, very engaged. Highlights for me included when Ev spoke of his mission to lower barriers to publishing, avoided talking about financing, and needled me a few times, in a humorous way, of course….

Ev recently turned over CEO duties to Dick Costolo, but it’s clear he’s still very, very engaged. Highlights for me included when Ev spoke of his mission to lower barriers to publishing, avoided talking about financing, and needled me a few times, in a humorous way, of course.

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Fred Wilson and John Doerr: A Great Conversation On Financing

A highlight for me at Web 2 was watching John Heilemann interview Fred and John, two giants of the VC world. This was a pretty historic pairing, and I'm very pleased we made it happen. For your enjoyment:…

A highlight for me at Web 2 was watching John Heilemann interview Fred and John, two giants of the VC world. This was a pretty historic pairing, and I’m very pleased we made it happen. For your enjoyment:

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FCC Chair Julius Genachowski: This Is Getting Very Real

If I could sum up the overarching theme of our conference this year, it's that "this sh*t is getting real." Plucky startups with funny names have consolidated power, and are disrupting the entire global economy. This, of course, means things are "getting real" from the point of view of government…

If I could sum up the overarching theme of our conference this year, it’s that “this sh*t is getting real.” Plucky startups with funny names have consolidated power, and are disrupting the entire global economy. This, of course, means things are “getting real” from the point of view of government and policy as well. Here’s a candid conversation with one of the key policy chiefs, FCC Chair Julius Genachowski.

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Carol Bartz at Web 2: Yahoo! In The Midst of Transition

Carol Bartz has been under fire for nearly two years, and it shows in her responses to my questions – she's ready to look forward and not defend what Yahoo has been in the past. My sense is that it will take another year or so before the real changes…

Carol Bartz has been under fire for nearly two years, and it shows in her responses to my questions – she’s ready to look forward and not defend what Yahoo has been in the past. My sense is that it will take another year or so before the real changes at Yahoo – in key areas of infrastructure, management, and products – will really take hold.

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Mark Zuckerberg at Web 2 – A Maturing CEO

This third conversation with Mark Zuckerberg was, to my mind, the best so far, and YouTube seems to agree, as it's got more plays than nearly any other save Eric Schmidt (who was featured by YouTube on the homepage). See if you agree….

This third conversation with Mark Zuckerberg was, to my mind, the best so far, and YouTube seems to agree, as it’s got more plays than nearly any other save Eric Schmidt (who was featured by YouTube on the homepage). See if you agree.

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Speaking with Yuri Milner – Business But No Politics

My conversation with recently emerged super investor Yuri Milner was fascinating, and it got a bit tense when I brought up the recent trial of former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky and its implications for doing business out of Russia. I felt it was a pertinent question, but I'm not certain…

My conversation with recently emerged super investor Yuri Milner was fascinating, and it got a bit tense when I brought up the recent trial of former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky and its implications for doing business out of Russia. I felt it was a pertinent question, but I’m not certain Milner agreed. What do you think?

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