This post marks my third year of making predictions for the coming year. I’m emboldened by not failing utterly in the past two years (well, for the most part), but I am sure this will only ensure that these prognostications will prove immeasurably off the mark. But what the hell, here we go:
1. Someone, and I do not know who, will make a big pile of Big Media video assets freely available on the web – and not via Google Video. This will be a major studio, or television company, which will realize that once you free content, content will come back to you in mashed up and remixed glory that has – holy smokes! – real business models like advertising and retail attached. The deal will be simple: anyone can download, rip, and mix this video, but if you plan to make money from it – even selling ads next to it – you have to cut a deal with the mother ship. The company that does this will be heralded as either visionary, lunatic, or both.
2. Google will stumble, some might say badly, but it will be significant. How? My money is on its second or third major deal – something on the order of the recent AOL deal. It may well be a loss (perceived or otherwise) in the Google Book Search case. Or it might be the privacy issue. This is not to say the company is going to fail, or the stock, for that matter. Just that it will face a major test in 2006 that it won’t pass with flying colors.
3. Speaking of privacy, there will be a major court case involving the database of intentions that gets legislators talking about “protecting the common citizen” (or somesuch) from “the perils of unprotected Internet data mining” (or somesuch).
4. Google and Yahoo will both enter the video (nee television) advertising marketplace.
5. Microsoft will gain five points of search share, at least. But…
6. Vista will launch, and its much anticipated and feared desktop search integration will be viewed as anemic. The whisper as to why? Fear of the DOJ….
7. “Web 2.0” will make the cover of Time Magazine, and thus its moment in the sun will have passed. However, the story that drives “Web 2.0” will only strengthen, and folks will cast about for the next best name for the phenomenon.
8. iTunes will begin to get the speed wobbles as the music industry decides it wants to control its distribution just like in the good old days.
9. The massive telephony industry will begin to crush mammals left and right as its core business model continues a long and painful death dance. “Mammals” are defined as anyone who happens to be in its way as it attempts – scarily but unsuccessfully – to force a two-tiered Internet onto all of us.
10. The pace of Internet startup acquisitions will not be as torrid as most entrepreneurs and VCs had hoped.
11. There will be one major new IPO that briefly gets the press talking about “the Next Google.” But it won’t live up to the hype.
12. It will be a long year of head scratching and simmering disputes in the “content creation” business as the major platforms shift strategy on RSS, in particular, and blogging, broadly. In other words, we won’t get nearly as much accomplished as we hoped. At issue is how content creators export their business model through RSS aggregation platforms. Near the end of the year, though, there will be a breakthrough deal that clarifies business model standards in the RSS space.
13. Mobile. I repeat my mobile prediction from last year, in the hope that it will come true this year: Mobile will finally be plugged into the web in a way that makes sense for the average user and a major mobile innovation – the kind that makes us all say – Jeez that was obvious – will occur. At the core of this innovation will be the concept of search. The outlines of such an innovation: it’ll be a way for mobile users to gather the unstructured data they leverage every day while talking on the phone and make it useful to their personal web (including email and RSS, in particular). And it will be a business that looks and feels like a Web 2.0 business – leveraging iterative web development practices, open APIs, and innovation in assembly – that makes the leap.
14. The China Internet Bubble will begin to deflate.
15. Tivo and NetFlix will merge.
16. I will not write another book, but my publisher will ask me to update the one I did write. I’ll point him to this site and leave it at that….
17. My new business (FM) will grow in fits and starts. By the end of the year, it will either be close to claiming success, or a glorious and noble whiff. Either way, it’ll be one hell of a ride….
As always, thanks to all of you for your feedback, your gracious insights, your not so gracious calling me out when I need calling out, and most importantly, for your support in what has been the most satisfying and energizing year of my professional life.
Happy Holidays and here’s to a Wonderful New Year!
PS – Posting will be light through the New Year…
The problem with mobile is that it’s similar to desktop software–you have to wait for people to explicitly upgrade their phones and service plans (that they’re now locked into for multiple years) before they can use mobile services. It’s really not at all like the web, where upgrades happen instantly for all to use.
So I’d push mobile off to at least 2007, except for us alpha geeks.
Great list, John. Happy Holidays.
– Stuart
You’re forgetting 2a – the specific cause of Google’s stumble will be some 15 year old kid who manages to compromise Google security and access highly sensitive privacy data, sparking mass media concern over the fact that Google owns us!
-dg
Number 1 (Someone, … will make a big pile of Big Media video assets freely available on the web) has kind of already started to happen, in the UK at least. The BBC and Channel4 launched their Creative Archive (slogan “Find It. Rip It. Mix It. Share It.”), which is video clips of various reports etc. specifically for remixing. The “Teachers’ TV” channel has also made its programmes available for download. Details at:
http://creativearchive.bbc.co.uk/
http://www.teachers.tv/
#7 will happen in the first half or the second one?
#1 – The gloriously web-savvy BBC are doing this already as part of their creative commons archive. Their plan is to make the entire BBC archive available to UK residents (as we paid for the content) for free online. They are actively encouraging content mash-ups etc.
Creative Archive:
http://creativearchive.bbc.co.uk
The Open News Archive:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/calc/news/
Superstar VJ’s:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/calc/radio1/
So this prediction was an easy one. 😉
I have my doubts about the #13.Mobile. Don’t get me wrong, I really hope that happens. I just don’t think anyone in the boys clubs that run the three major markets will allow it to happen. At least not in a way that we won’t be paying through the nose for.
I hope you’re right about #7. Enough of “web 2.0” already. Too much hype.
“Mobile.”
Have you used an EVDO phone yet? If the data plans can go to a comfortable flat fee, combined with EVDO, it’ll happen. EVDO makes browsing the web possible.
Google has already stumbled. Google will follow the same path as Time Warner but much faster. They have paid 1 billion for something that would have eventually been theirs for a lot less. This purchase will turn Google into an unwieldy corporation that can no longer act quickly and innovate.
Oh… So Yahoo won’t buy Google??? damned! 🙂
You forgot the one about Microsoft buying Yahoo for $60 a share 🙂
John, you’re a writer. What’s with the word space ? (Yes it’s a minor pet peeve of mine, but seriously, why does everyone talk like this?)
In other news, I met you at your Stacey’s reading and enjoyed your book. The bit at the end about IBM’s search stuff was really cool — almost Star Trek-like.
For #1: The BBC, perhaps?
#7 is hilarious (and probably true) – thanks for a good laught!
/Anders
You forgot the one about Microsoft buying Yahoo for $60 a share 🙂
this gag is cool 😀
but the list is great, thanks
Markus
How about Google co-opts Firefox, rebrands as GBrowser, and knocks off IE once and for all?
#4 – with Vive Network, perhaps?
as a former Gartner analyst allow me to share how really really good market predictions are made
http://dealarchitect.typepad.com/deal_architect/2005/12/the_delicate_ar.html
happy holidays
Point #7: I wonder if people will lean toward “Web 3.0” or a different way of labeling whatever the next “wave” of Web innovation becomes. I’d guess that ten years from now, we will remember “Web 2.0” very differently. How’s “conglomermeldimization” to describe the mashup craze? (Kidding there.) Good predictions.
With a nod to Cyrus Farivar I’d like to add:
Sometime in 2006 there will be more space in the “space” space.
Great collection of predictions John.
I think most of Web 2.0 will wash away or fade leaving just a few things standing, prime among them tagging.
I predict your publisher will get you to do a new intro or afterword for the paperback.
Here’s my ‘Google in 2015’ predictions, and in my blog http://goolocalizations.blogspot.com you may find also about 2025, one little Applevision, a treatise about Googler, GoogleOS, and whatnot:
GOOGLEVISION
One Google opening for i18n specialist requires a candidate to possess a “vision”. You want a vision, here you go.
In 1993-1994 I worked on Nostradamus TV script translation, and it was me who said that the scene of a global war of West against Islam must be dated 2001, not 2000, as faulty translation of Nostradamus’ quatrains suggested. Check it out in Mosfilm archives, or in some Hollywood script hangars.
Here’s what happens in the next decade from now:
1. Google buys Australia, Starbucks, Moffett Field, Antarctica, some parts of California — from a weakening grip of Governator. Google finances the digging of the tunnel and the pipeline between Eurasian Empire of Czar Putin I and Alaskan Dominion.
2. On Moffett Field, Google builds the Babelfish Tower out of millions of nanocarbon tethers delivering food, water, replacement nuts and bolts to ISS by dozen molecules at a time. Ancient flotilla of space shuttles is grounded and converted into Starbucks restaurants.
3. Google buys CNN, FoxNews, replaces their field force by 360 deg Webcams put on every phone pole in US and in major critical points around the globe. The new service is called Google News, and its content, zoom, direction and choice of commenting blogs can be tailored by user’s preferences. Hollywood movies can be watched in raw footage, or pre-director’s cuts. Effects, actors and scripts can be edited by a viewer.
4. Cash is virtually abolished and used only in illegitimate trade of drugs, firearms, in presidential campains and in live prostitution. Numismatists grumble over cash substitute called AdCents: an ancient $2 bill is valued at 200 AdCents at GoogleBay: 1 AdCent is equal to 1 million of AdSense clicks. As the result, Google Cache replaces Fort Knox. Google’s motto ‘Don’t Be Evil’ now reads: ‘Don’t Be!” Accordingly, the final solution to private information and its theft is brought about: except for the name, approximate date of birth, and fingerprints there’s nothing could be found on any individual. Legacy data like account numbers, PINs, SSN, Apt./House Numbers, etc., are known only to Google Index and corresponding agencies.
5. Google trades McDonalds’ back to Canada for Québec. Resulting huge reserves of frying oil, with Persian Gulf’s oil being almost finished, are used in mix with corn schnapps to fuel 4-wheeled segways, or SUVs, as in Segway Utility Vehicle. Ford leads the pack of auto manufacturers with a nostalgically smelling Segway-T model capable of 1 mpg.
6. Googlers (see section below) are routinely shot off the skies over China and Northern Korea by ancient DoS ACKACKers. Google retaliates by using Mandarin over the Continental China. Meanwhile, with Google’s backing Al Gore, the old Internet inventor, buys EU Internet back from European rebels. A new resulting Internet is called Google Index.
7. Google buys LOC, NYPL, SJPL, Stanford Library, and copyright debates cease with an acceptance of Copygoogle Law. Google buys Wikipedia and Britannica, publishes the resulting Brikiwikipedia in 100 set in Katull paper volumes of 5000 pages each. To enhance readability of such a tome, Googlese it is printed in (see below) has lost many useless letters and signs like ‘c’, ‘j’, ‘q’, ‘v’, ‘w’, ‘y’, ‘z’, ‘$’, comma, colon, semicolon, ellipsis, dashes, etc. Sites insisting on using old, or so called correct English, are progressively excluded from Google Index.
8. Google launches Goobble, a space telescope armed with hurricane battling laser. First fire test was partially successful: the Omega hurricane was dissipated over Cancún, Transtexas, which was severely fried in the process. Goops!
9. Google’s AdSense program is challenged by AbSence ideology by Teoma, the most used search engine of 2015. Teoma’s success is based on abolishing spamming and sponsored links in its search results.
10. At Googleplex and next to Vint Cerf’s, Google unveils a bronze monument of me, the best Google Borshcht Chef whose after-borshcht burp renders a better “Goooooooogle” sound out of majority of contest jury for 10th year in a row.
Google will stop its free lunch and dinner in 2006 Q3.
i’d say each of these has a 10-20% chance of happening in ’06, more likely ’07:
– Microsoft buys either eBay or Amazon
– Microsoft buys some part of IAC (for the Ask assets)
– if Microsoft doesn’t buy eBay, Yahoo & eBay merge
and if i’m wrong, i promise to make even more wild & unsubstantiated predictions next year.
– dave mcclure
2. Google will stumble, some might say badly, but it will be significant.
So you’re hinting that it may be time to sell Google shares? 😉
6. Vista will launch, and its much anticipated and feared desktop search integration will be viewed as anemic.
It’s Microsoft; it’s a given.
7. “Web 2.0” will make the cover of Time Magazine
I always planned to wait until about Web 2.1rc4
8. iTunes will begin to get the speed wobbles as the music industry decides it wants to control its distribution just like in the good old days.
8a. Apple will proclaim to the old media music industry, “suck it up, we pwn you”.
Yes, I agree that there is a lot that can be done with e-bay:)
Anna
On #3 associating an identity to search terms is up to the search engine. The IP address can be associated with the search terms or not. My search engine:
http://www.tengee.com
DOES NOT collect your computer’s IP Address and associate it to search terms.
RAUL
Cool blog!
Nice predictions, I will follow them through the year and wonder wich ones come true!
I predict that new web innovations will spring up out of Asia and Europe in 2006, things that we of the US-centric folk have completely overlooked. I see this happening most in countries which have much higher broadband penetration than the US.
Further to comments on No. 1 – http://backstage.bbc.co.uk/
mash it up!
yes CC and video go well together. we will see cool example’s this year and not only from the BBC 😉
Hello… The coincidence wanted it that I before-look here! Me your nice and mad homepage long time looked at. And at the end I did not want to press myself simply in such a way, therefore I register myself here. Power further so. Many greetings from the Manuel
Prediction #1 is a lovely idea..
but I don’t think the writer understands the nature of television and film production — that even the biggest entities don’t hold the rights to all the elements in a film/ T.V. show ( For example – all the underlying music rights, including things like publishing, performance, and synchronization. Not to mention all of the issues with compensation for the actors, directors and other that allow them to hold on to discrete rights in a production… Even things like the sounds of footsteps, or doors closing might be covered by copyright. Producers have to license all of those kinds of things as well, y’know.
Which raises another question – how do you keep track of the content? And if it’s a mash-up, all the rights holders that have to be compensated?
But I don’t want to be a party-pooper – because I think there’s one hell of a ‘killer-app’ waiting to be written. That seems like where one big pot of money would be.
What if there was a way to embed source info into everything that gets put up on the web — and then have spiders do constant sweeps of the net to generate lists of how content is being used – if it’s in a ‘commercial’ context – either directly sold, or running alongside advertising? Come to think of it — wouldn’t it be better just to have the content send out it’s own signal on how it’s being used, in what context and where? Then maybe have some massive server keeping track of it all?
This kind of a model could also easily take into account the the Creative Commons licensing scenario as well.
Ray
Ra
I really like all your predictions I really hope that you are right for the 3rd year in a row! They are really cool!
hi i am struggling to get on the property market in n ireland , what is your feeling on this will they go up or down in value
Live is never better or worse than we think of.
2006 we’ve seen how it is…i wonder how it will be 2016…
I’m new to your predictions and I’m really interested in what will really happen next year. Some parts of your predictions are really like to happen, f.e. Google – Privacy. There was the problem with AOL the last week, where AOL gave away search information data for scientific purposes. Google CEO said that this will not happen with Google-data but who knows? Goverments would pay a lot of money to get this information.
Hello… The coincidence wanted it that I before-look here! Me your nice and mad homepage long time looked at. And at the end I did not want to press myself simply in such a way, therefore I register myself here. Power further so.
Many greetings from susan
wow, let’s see what’s up in 2016 …. 🙂
seems to get very interesting in 2016.
i think everything has been said.. 2016 -> we are coming 😉
I cant see my Blog.
Why ?
Oh… So Yahoo won’t buy Google??? damned! 🙂
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So Yahoo won’t buy yahoo?