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Predictions 2012 #5: A Big Year for M&A

By - January 05, 2012

(image) One of the things that pops out of the “Big Five” chart I just posted, at least if you stare at it a bit, are the places where each company needs to get strong, quickly. Apple is weak in social and one dimensional in ad solutions. Microsoft needs to improve its device products, build out its entertainment distribution muscle, and keep improving search share. Google wants to get better in productivity software, social, and payments. Amazon needs help in devices, social, and OS. Facebook has work to do in many areas, including devices, search, payment, and voice.

When the five largest companies in our space have a lot of needs, they tend to pull out the wallet and go shopping. Sometimes they buy their way into partnerships, but often, they simply buy.

Hence my  fifth prediction for 2012: Expect Internet M&A to heat up, big time. It’s not just going to be the Big Five who drive this trend, it’ll be a whole mess of players looking to consolidate power and press into the double-digit growth market that is the Internet (and by Internet, I also mean mobile and enterprise, of course). Yahoo’s new CEO Scott Thompson knows how to buy companies and has a data focus, for example. That could mean competition to purchase marketing, ad tech, and data companies like Blue Kai, Quantcast, or MarketShare. MediaBank is on a tear and will be on the lookout for similar kinds of companies. IBM has a deep interest in the marketing tech world, expect Big Blue to make some big moves as well. And Twitter will certainly be flexing its muscles, now that it’s bulked up with nearly a billion in fresh capital.

If I had to name a few companies I expect to be in play amongst the Big Five, they would be:

Instagram. This searing hot proof-of-iPhone app is not only a strong social play, it’s a massive image and data goldmine to boot. I could imagine a bidding war for Instagram between Apple (which really needs a social win), Twitter (which could really use a strong photo play), Facebook (which might buy it to keep it out of Apple or Google’s hands), and Google (who would see it as a way to sex up Google+ and Picasa). Of course Yahoo would vie for Instagram as well, but I’m not sure it could win.

Pinterest. It’s social. It’s media. It’s data. Is it a mayfly? Perhaps, but I think it’ll be in play in 2012.

Square. Everyone loves small business, and everyone loves payments. Visa already owns a stake, but that won’t stop Dorsey from landing where he feels the fit is best. That might be Amazon.

Evernote. If any of the Big Five are looking to bolster their productivity suite, Evernote might pique their interest.

These are just off the top of my head, and I’m not a VC (or a daily tech reporter for that matter), so I’ll leave the rest to your imagination. Suffice to say, I predict 2012 is going to be a banner year for tech and Internet M&A. Who do you think will be swept up, and why?


Predictions 2012: #1 – On Twitter and Media

Predictions 2012: #2 – Twitter As Free Radical, Swiss Bank, Arms Merchant…And Google Five Years Ago

Predictions 2012 #3: The Facebook Ad Network

Predictions 2012 #4: Google’s Challenging Year

Predictions 2011

2011: How I Did

Predictions 2010

2010: How I Did

2009 Predictions

2009 How I Did

2008 Predictions

2008 How I Did

2007 Predictions

2007 How I Did

2006 Predictions

2006 How I Did

2005 Predictions

2005 How I Did

2004 Predictions

2004 How I Did

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5 thoughts on “Predictions 2012 #5: A Big Year for M&A

  1. I know I’ve beaten this to death, but… Craigslist seems like the most logical purchase of all-time. Established/loyal user base, ridiculously simple to use, etc. That’s assuming it could be purchased, of course. 

    This one may be a bit of a stretch, considering Twitter’s value is approx. the same as Linkedin’s, but Twitter should buy Linkedin. Once Twitter becomes the media company you talked about (and increases in value) it may become a more realistic scenario. 

  2. […] Predictions 2012 #5: A Big Year for M&A, John Battelle’s Searchblog […]

  3. […] Prediction #5 was that it’d be a big year for Internet M&A. I further singled out Instagram as a company that would likely be bought, and figured there’d be a battle between Twitter, Apple, Facebook, and Google for the prize. Facebook won, with a billion dollar price tag. That checks box number seven, which predicted, among other things, that Facebook would make a billion dollar acquisition. FWIW, I also predicted Google would have a rough year (so far, seems that way) and that a heads up display would emerge (Google did that as well). […]

  4. […] Predictions 2012 #5: A Big Year for M&A – 2012 may well be the biggest year of all for Internet M&A.  Well, sort of. We did have the big Instagram deal, and tons of “acqui-hires”, but the year didn’t turn out as I predicted in terms of major ad-tech deals. We all thought Yahoo was going to become a buyer again, but that didn’t pan out, thanks to the CEO turnover there. On the plus side, data from Thomson Reuters does show 2012 as a very big year for exits – one of the biggest in recent history – but much of that was due to the Facebook IPO. Overall, I’d say I missed this one, even if I do look smart for calling out Instagram in my original post. […]