Comments on: Predictions 08: How Did I Do?

By: mlstotts

mlstotts — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 04:46:03 +0000

nailed it! thought it appears the East German judge isn’t convinced

By: Jeff

Jeff — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:42:30 +0000

I think alot of your predictions were safe, yet grossly entertaining! I know its a little late for 2009, but i’d like to see you step out of the bubble a bit for 2010!

By: East

East — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 00:01:22 +0000

As far as your news corp predictions … I used to work for FIM at the TV station level (the myfox sites) and you are 100% correct that they have no identity and nobody is driving the ship there … I left late in the year as it was clear that they had no clue … my impression was that the people in charge (at newscorp) knew they needed to get involved in the internet but had no idea what that involved. They bought a few companies and told them they wanted some awesome sites that did everything that every other site could do. Then of course they went cheap on everything and set up a management style that put the new media and old media people at odds with each other. It kind of reminded me of Nixon meeting Elvis. He knew he needed to connect with people, but looked like an idiot. Rupert knew he needed interactive, but has no idea how to make it work. Ask anybody who works at FIM about the myfox Re-arch … it should get a laugh.

By: Micah

Micah — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 18:02:33 +0000

Your prediction number 5:

5. ...continued erosion of the traditional mobile oligarchy. But despite the best efforts of Android, not much will get done this year

Well, we saw a phone, but it hasn't lit the world on fire. Google is using them as employee gifts instead of cash this year.

I don't understand your reasoning on this one... Who is the mobile oligarchy AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon? Or Nokia, Motorola and Samsung?

Are you just commenting about android or the whole mobile market? Because I would say that in 2008, iPhone becoming the number 1 phone in the US:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/The-NPD-Group-iPhone-3G/story.aspx?guid=%7B7DDDC6C0-37E3-4534-B2D1-5F1399EBDB04%7D

and I'm not just talking smart phones, all phones... Plus the iPhone outselling all of Windows mobile worldwide:

http://news.worldofapple.com/archives/2008/12/04/iphone-shows-increase-of-over-300-points-in-market-share/

Is more than a "erosion" or the mobile oligarchy, it is a "set the world on fire" kind of year for Apple. I'd say if you were predicting anything about the mobile market and you didn't address that, you've gotten some minor details correct, but you haven't pointed out the giant elephant sitting in the middle of the room..

Also I'm going to make a prediction of my own. Your prediction of a reversal of fortunes for Apple is wrong. Apple's sales and numbers may decline this year, but in proportion to any other company in the industry of the industry as a whole, they will be looking pretty good.

By: Hardy

Hardy — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 21:40:05 +0000

Google’s stock was $600 in May, and $300 at the end of December. 50% decline is not unusual or a sign that Wall Street is fed up with Google; a 50% decline is on par with the other stocks in my 201K.

By: Sachin

Sachin — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 07:24:05 +0000

Interesting…..hope all come true..A very Happy New Year to you.

By: Oyun

Oyun — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:22:56 +0000

ı have followed your writing for a long time.really you have given very successful information.

By: Blog Expert

Blog Expert — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:20:43 +0000

You didn’t do too bad. It is always hard to predict these kind of things and you did a lot better than a lot of other people I have seen.

By: Darren Herman

Darren Herman — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:04:58 +0000

John, you got your fair share right. Good work on the predictions.

I'd love to see your advertising predictions beyond the social media space.

Happy holidays,
Darren

By: Bertil Hatt

Bertil Hatt — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 00:02:44 +0000

Everybody has to agree that Yahoo! is still in trouble, but you mentionned:

> to articulate a strategy

and, however drafty and uncertain is the Developpers Network, this sounds like a strategy — actually, the only one to be able to face very well integrated search engine, media company and social graph management consortia. Therefore, I'd be tempted to tell you that you are right on this one.