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If There Was Nothing But Time…

By - March 22, 2007

…I’d write long, overly analytical posts on these issues:

Metaweb. I spent some time with Danny Hillis today. What he’s trying to do is deeply important in terms of how the web is going to work – or not. I will write something soon, I promise.

YouTube. Man, this one is not going away, and there’s a lot to say about the new NBC/Newscorp thing. First, don’t pay attention to the content. I don’t think it matters. Pay attention to two things: One, the community – will it show up? And two, pay attention to the distribution they struck. Note how it’s all the folks on the web who are worried/terrified of Google? Uh huh.

Vista. I spent the day with a lot of technology folks, it almost felt like a day back in 2004 when I was interviewing sources for the book (it just ended up that way, no idea why). Anyway, almost universally folks were wondering what Microsoft is going to do about Vista being a disappointment. There was a vague sense of concern here – it seems the technology cycle we all understood is over – but we don’t understand the next one quite yet. It can’t just be Google…can it?

Two Fridays ago I took a day to write. I plan to do it again soon. I really, really miss it.

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  • Mike

    NBC/Newscorp video project will gain community because members of the consortium will use the power of all their combined mediums to push viewers. The content will make them stay.
    As for Vista, two family members have now removed Vista and reloaded their old software. They hate it, I’ll stick with XP Home.

  • Randy

    Content & Social Networks In the Age of Peak Oil

    John, I’m willing to bet that these combo Internet media deals won’t matter unless it starts to deal with delivering content that helps ease the woes of the middle class.

    Content like “How to turn your lawn into a food garden”, “How to save energy in the kitchen”, etc. You get the point. With predictions of Peak Oil and global warming beginning to swing a baseball bat and knock the American dollar around, our debts to pay for our consumer lifestyles are being called in by China and the world.

    Yes, marketing, content and user behavior are all in a flux. People are tuning out marketing messages and are taking back control of their minds through technology. Now it’s what YOU want, when YOU want it, courtesy of the Internet. As energy prices increase, businesses are seeing their costs rise, which makes them nervous. Add in that people are financing their purchases with the hopes they can keep their jobs or somehow pay off that credit card, and businesses sense something’s up.

    Nevermind the fact that it’s not just the advertising messages that need to change, but the entire business and monetary system as it is presently tied to energy. Instead of ordering so many new cars for the lot, car dealers could be investing in biofuels facilities to ensure a fuel source for all the vroom vrooms they want to sell. And since margins are shrinking, businesses are desperate for ideas that go beyond the ‘old’ advertising. Instead of simple branding, they mostly want to beef their sales back up. That’s why with all the buzz buzz buzz about Web 2.0, they are throwing more money into the electronic advertising bucket. The questions is… what marketing lures work these days?

    Like you, I don’t have time at the moment to dissect video, e-mail, search engines and all the other variables involved, but here’s a friendly note to the punks playing pinball and ping-pong in those open air agency offices… you had better start getting hip to the shit, or you’ll be busy creatively begging for food rather than thinking of neato ways to sell twinkies tied to whatever content in whatever media channel of choice.

    For instance, a few weeks ago I presented to a bunch of businesses and ad agencies about the changing consumer and technology landscape. I told them about the way TV, Radio and Print are all morphing in the same chrysalis, and we are all emerging as a hybrid-butterfly into a harsher world than the previous incarnation had to deal with. When I brought up the idea of giving carbon credits with any car purchase, I would have thought they would be on it by now.

    And so we as marketers MUST understand the change. Change in the value of money. Change in the way people buy things. Change in the way people are able to pay for things. Change, change, change. But the problem with moving forward and saving the planet comes in when people and institutions “cling” to the old model. Fighting tooth and nail to hang onto what was, rather than moving forward. The funny thing, in advertising anyway, is that it’s the old-schoolers that refuse to change, and it’s the young media folks that are leading it. Yet the old-schoolers have the money, and don’t want to hear that their business model is screwed. They don’t like hearing that growth may not be possible, and the writing is on the wall, the stall, and anywhere their eyeballs look. They are clinging like barnacles to denial or ignorance of reality.

    And clinging to old business models means many, many businesses are in the deepest of doo. Especially when the first oil shocks hit.

    (Content repurposed a little from my blog)

  • http://lepetitradiateur.blogspot.com/ Hugo

    The next technology cycle is Apple. Watch what happens when Leopard comes out.

  • http://lepetitradiateur.blogspot.com/ Hugo

    I miss the time when you had more time to write, by the way. I hope you can do it sometimes. It really shows in the quality of your posts.

  • http://blog.agrawals.org Rocky Agrawal

    You’d think with all of the on-air promotion the networks have been doing, they’d be getting a lot more traffic. YouTube had 34.4 million unique visitors in February. NBC sites had 6.8 million and Fox had 2.8 million. The combined reach of the 4 major networks is 17.9 million, about half of YouTube’s.

    This will help tremendously with distribution, but I doubt it’ll hit the 96% reach the press release claimed.

    More thoughts here:
    http://blog.agrawals.org/2007/03/23/newscorpnbcyahoomsnmyspaceaoltube-vs-gootube/